The intensifying super El Niño may have some impacts on your winter getaway travel, including popular escapes such as Florida, Arizona and Hawaii.

First, a disclaimer

We can't predict months in advance what a particular week of weather will be.

If you're planning to spend a week in January in the Florida Keys or Scottsdale, Arizona, we can't tell you what that week will be like this far out.

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But the intensity of this potentially historic El Niño means that it will likely have a significant influence on the weather pattern this winter.

It doesn't mean you should necessarily change or cancel your plans this winter.

But it increases the odds of certain weather conditions that could affect these common winter getaways.

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And that could be more meaningful for the legions of "snowbirds" who flock from colder climates to the South for weeks or months in winter.

(MORE: Winter 2026-27 Outlook)

Florida: Liquid Sunshine?

Winter typically lands in the heart of the state's dry season, when it's typically cooler, less humid and without those daily summer thunderstorms.

But that "dry season" may not be so dry this time.

Stronger El Niño winters tend to be wetter than usual in Florida and much of the Southeast.

And as senior meteorologist and former Florida resident Jonathan Belles recently wrote, even if it isn't raining, there could be less sunshine in the Sunshine State this winter.

The most recent El Niño in 2023-2024 was Florida's cloudiest winter in 80 years, a much less intense El Niño than we expect this time.

Belles also offered several excellent tips for ideas in case your getaway ends up cloudier or wetter than you had hoped.

(IN DEPTH: What Florida's winter could be like this year)

Wet Desert?

It could also be a wetter than usual winter in some getaway spots like Arizona and Southern California.

Not every strong El Niño delivers such a wet winter. But as you can see in the map below, we are expecting this winter to produce more rain and mountain snow in the Southwest and California.

Or, as the case has been in the past in Florida, it could at least be a cloudier winter than these sunnier spots are used to.

So, keep this in mind if your getaway includes some beach time in Southern California or hikes in the desert. Sunscreen may not be the only thing to plan for this winter.

(MORE: El Niño could enhance California coastal flooding)

Hawaii drier?

Has all the news of tropical storms, even hurricanes, that have affected parts of Hawaii this summer made you nervous about your winter getaway?

It turns out a bullish El Niño's effects on the islands is typically the opposite of the Southwest U.S. starting in December.

According to NOAA, it usually turns much drier in Hawaii by December during an El Niño, and that dry weather could persist well into next year.

Instead of being among the wettest months, January through March have been the driest months of the year in Honolulu during El Niños.

As meteorologist Faiza Mohammed wrote, the chance of wet Kona storms diminishes in an El Niño winter.

And winter is after hurricane season.

So you can probably put whatever weather concerns you might have about Hawaii to bed this winter.

(IN DEPTH: El Niño could reshape Hawaii's weather this year)

Ski haves and have-nots

What if your idea of a winter getaway is hitting the slopes, rather than the beach?

First, the good news.

The Weather Company is forecasting a "jackpot" winter snowfall potential from California to Utah's Wasatch to the southern and central Rockies. It's a pattern we see often in stronger El Niño winters.

So, you can probably feel a bit more confident than usual about booking several days or a week of skiing and snowboarding in these areas.

However, the opposite pattern may hold from the Cascades and northern Rockies to the Midwest, where winter is expected to be both warmer and drier than average. That could mean more reliance on machine-made snow at those resorts this year, rather than plentiful fresh powder.

In the Northeast ski areas, you may see better ski conditions later in winter, rather than in, say, December.

In these northern tier locations, you may want to either wait until just after a fresh snowfall and take a last-minute trip, or make sure you're aware of any cancellation policies in case warmer and drier weather takes its toll on the resort you planned on.

(MORE: Our comprehensive El Niño coverage)

Other dry areas

What if your wanderlust is taking you much farther this winter.

As you can see in the map below, several other locations could be quite dry from December through February during an El Niño, including:

• Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and parts of Vietnam
• Parts of Australia, especially in the east
• Much of southern Africa
• Much of Central America into northern South America, including Costa Rica and Panama

Since December through February is summer in the Southern Hemisphere, you probably already plan to pack plenty of sunscreen and hats.

Just know that it could be even drier and possibly hotter this time if you're checking off a bucket list safari or exploring the Great Barrier Reef while forgetting about winter's cold and snow for a while.

(MORE: Your travel weather maps tracker)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.