We are already seeing the effects of the super El Niño impacting hurricane season, and will likely continue to see these enhanced effects on rainfall and temperatures as we move through fall and into winter. 

The latest status update and outlook on El Niño was just released by NOAA. Here’s what you need to know. 

What’s new

• El Niño has continued to strengthen this month, with water temperatures now greater than 3°C above average in the eastern Pacific. This is still a very strong (or super) El Niño.
• “There is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says. This chance has gone up from 69% in August.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator that typically happens every three to four years. It can affect global weather patterns for months, from temperatures to precipitation to the hurricane season.

This year’s El Niño is already very strong and expected to continue to strengthen through the fall and winter. It has not only a high chance of being very strong, but there is also a high chance of it becoming a historic El Niño, exceeding the strength of previous recorded El Niño events.

Why does this matter?

So what does warm ocean water near the equator have to do with your weather?

While El Niño is only one influence on global weather, its heat transferred to the atmosphere can have a significant impact on weather patterns around the world from summer through fall, winter and spring.

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And the stronger the El Niño, the more likely you'll see its typical weather impacts, such as a wet southern U.S. in winter or drought in Australia and Indonesia.

Hurricane season is already being impacted

A stronger El Niño tends to have a significant impact on hurricane seasons, both in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and we are seeing those impacts already this season. 

In the Atlantic, a strong El Niño often produces more sinking air and stronger wind shear in parts of the Atlantic Basin, both hostile to hurricanes. So, in general, most stronger El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons are quieter than average. 

This season so far, we’ve only seen 5 tropical storms in the Atlantic, and no hurricanes, which is significantly below the average 8 tropical storms and 3 hurricanes seen by September 10. 

Meanwhile, eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons are typically more active during strong El Niños.

Tropical activity in both the eastern and central Pacific basins have been near or above average, with a total of 16 storms, four of which have been major hurricanes. 

One way you can see this is in the graph below. The ACE index not only counts the number of storms, but also takes into account how strong and long-lasting they are. The higher the index, the more active the season.

Big impacts to this winter

In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.

That means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough.

Hawaii can also suffer from rainier winters before drying out significantly in the year after El Niño.

Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest. That means that your heating bill won't be as steep this year.