A strengthening El Niño could reshape Hawaii's weather across two very different seasons — and neither one looks typical. The tropical threat comes first, followed by a winter that trends drier than average with fewer Kona lows than usual.

Two seasons, two threats, one overarching pattern

Hawaii has a lot to watch over the next several months, and the threats couldn't look more different.

First comes a more active tropical season, raising the chances for nearby storms to bring flooding and dangerous surf.

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(MORE: Is a record super El Niño inevitable?)

Then, as the tropics quiet down, El Niño flips the script. Instead of Hawaii's typically wet winter, conditions trend drier than average — a notable shift from what residents usually expect during the islands' rainy season.

More tropical threats this season 

El Niño flips the script on where we see the most tropical activity. While it suppresses Atlantic hurricanes, the opposite happens in the Central Pacific.

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Warmer sea surface temperatures and warm, moist air create the ideal conditions for storm development.

Less vertical wind shear means storms can organize and strengthen more easily in the region.

The result is a higher chance of tropical systems tracking toward or near the islands this hurricane season.

Regardless of landfall, a distant storm can send high surf and gusty winds to Hawaii from hundreds of miles away.

(MORE: Hawaii hurricanes aren't as unusual as they seem)

El Niño winter forecast

Once tropical season winds down, Hawaii's weather pattern shifts — but so does the overall setup.

Winter is typically Hawaii's wet season, when Kona lows can bring widespread heavy rain, flooding, and powerful surf.

Kona lows form when an area of low pressure becomes cut off from the main flow and settles near Hawaii. These slow-moving systems can pull deep tropical moisture over the islands, sometimes producing heavy rain for hours to days — leading to flash flooding, landslides, and dangerous travel.

We saw a textbook example this past March, when a strong Kona low stalled over the islands and drenched them for days.

Those events become less frequent than usual during an El Niño winter, and the overall pattern trends drier than average across the islands.

NWS Honolulu meteorologist Genki Kino explains why surf becomes a bigger story than rain this time of year:

"We tend to see large surf during El Niño winters here in Hawaii. Due to the extended Pacific jet stream, we tend to see more storms tracking west to east across the Pacific, which produces larger NW to WNW swells for Hawaii. The larger surf increases the odds to run 'The Eddie,' which is Hawaii's Super Bowl of surfing. The contest only runs when there are 40-foot waves or larger with optimal conditions."

The Eddie was called off last season due to a lack of qualifying swells — but with El Niño back in the picture, the odds of it running this winter are much higher.

Kino adds that the extended jet stream also shifts the subtropical high farther south, leading to lighter winds and more stable weather:

"So during El Niño winters, we typically see more days with light winds rather than our typical trade winds."

The bigger wildcard is just how strong El Niño becomes.

According to NOAA, there is a greater than 90% chance El Niño becomes very strong during fall and winter 2026–2027. We're already seeing early signs — tropical activity in the Pacific has been above normal this season, and that signal is expected to continue.

A stronger El Niño doesn't guarantee specific impacts for Hawaii, but it does increase the likelihood of a winter that runs drier than normal across the islands.

Faiza Mohammed is a meteorologist intern at weather.com. She studied geography and worked with the Weather Dawgs team at the University of Georgia. She also received her master's in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences from the Georgia Institute of Technology.