El Niño could help erase or improve drought conditions for many in the U.S. this winter and spring, but some may not be so lucky, if history is a guide.

Most of the US in drought

As the first full day of fall arrived, 40 of the Lower 48 states had at least some drought conditions, as the map below shows.

The worst of the drought was spread across parts of the South, Rockies, Northern Plains and upper Midwest.

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It's been among the top two or three driest 12-month October-September periods on record in parts of the Carolinas and Oklahoma, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

Earlier last summer, over 60% of the continental U.S. was classified in drought, something that happened only three other times this century in the Drought Monitor analysis.

El Niño good news for some

You've probably heard by now that El Niño is here, and is likely to be record strong into winter.

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Because it's so strong, it's more likely to leave its typical thumbprint on the nation's weather through winter, if not into spring.

The maps below show The Weather Company's precipitation outlooks from October through February.

You probably noticed a common theme depicted on those maps.

Much of the South and eventually the East Coast is forecast to be wetter than usual, while parts of the northern U.S. may be drier than average.

(MORE: Complete coverage of El Niño)

Where drought relief could happen

That means significant improvement, if not outright removal, of drought conditions is expected over much of the southern tier of the U.S., as well as parts of the upper Midwest and some lingering Northeast drought areas, according to an outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued on Sept. 17.

That includes New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida and the Carolinas. And while longer-term, multidecadal water supply concerns linger, we do expect a much wetter snow season in the southern and central Rockies and Desert Southwest.

However, drought conditions may linger or even spread in parts of the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.

(MORE: Your winter outlook)

Not all strong El Niños leave the same wet or dry footprints, as it's just one ingredient in the mix of factors influencing weather in the colder months.

But despite concern about some impacts from this likely record-smashing El Niño, it's also a reminder that a strong El Niño's benefits aren't restricted to a quieter Atlantic hurricane season.

(MORE: Don't fall for these myths about El Niño)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.