El Niño’s winter impacts: What could your season be like?
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The pattern might catch you by surprise this winter as El Niño leaves its footprint on the season.

Caitlin Kaiser
ByCaitlin Kaiser•
2 days agoUpdated: October 1, 2026, 8:00 am EDTPublished: October 1, 2026, 7:50 am EDT

El Niño winter impacts: Will your area be warmer, drier or wetter?

From temperatures to precipitation, El Niño can have a significant impact on what your winter will look like, and the pattern you see might surprise you.

Could you see a snowier winter? Or be treated to one that is more warm or dry?

We have the impacts simplified and broken out by region — here's what you need to know.

(MORE: What is El Niño?)

El Niño's impact on the winter season in the U.S.

Impacts by region

  • Northern Plains/Great Lakes: Much of the Northern Tier trends warmer than average during El Niño winters, which may be a bit of a treat for those who typically see the most brutally cold temperatures. It is worth noting, though, that just because the region is expected to see above average warmth, it doesn't mean it will actually be warm — so still have that thick winter coat handy.
  • Ohio Valley: El Niño typically brings drier than average conditions to the region, so if you're looking for a winter season with less snow, this winter is for you.
  • South: For the snow-lovers who feel deprived living in the South, this could be your year. El Niño typically brings wetter than average conditions from California to Florida. This means if there's enough cold air in place, we could see snow and/or ice storms from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. If Florida is your snowbird escape of choice, take note that it will be wetter than usual during the state's typical dry season.

(MORE: El Niño could impact this winter's snowfall)

Now, it is important to remember that El Niño is just one of many factors that impacts the winter season across the country.

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And while a strong El Niño typically reveals a more clear-cut pattern like what we see above, these are trends, not your daily weather forecast.

Regions seeing a drier than average winter can still see snow and those who typically experience above average warmth can still have teeth-chattering days. So, be prepared for all that winter can throw at you.

Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.

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