Tropical Storm Isaias could form in the Gulf later this week, and may bring more soaking rain and wind to parts of the Gulf Coast this weekend.

Where is it now and when could it develop?

An area of low pressure, tagged Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center, has formed off the coast of eastern Mexico in the southwestern Gulf. Invests are tagged when the NHC is interested in running specialized computer models on a system and want to send the hurricane hunters to investigate.

The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled the first hurricane hunter mission into this system for Wednesday afternoon.

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During the next few days, it will be in an environment that appears at least somewhat favorable for formation, which could happen as soon as Wednesday or Thursday.

If it becomes a tropical storm (a low pressure system with a well-defined, closed-off center and sustained winds of at least 39 mph), it would be called Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs), which would be the ninth storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

(MORE: Hurricane season maps tracker)

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Where will the system go?

There are various model forecast tracks that range from the upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle, with more of them beginning to trend closer to the Florida Panhandle.

Rain chances will be on the increase by Friday in that region and widespread rainfall is likely this weekend across the Southeast.

This means additional rain for the already soaked Southeast and Gulf Coast, especially along and to the east of the track of this system.

Heavy rainfall can occur well inland, which can lead to flooding for people not as used to heavy tropical moisture. Also, should heavy rain fall across higher elevation areas, landslides could be possible.

(Hurricane preparedness: What you need to know during hurricane season)

What obstacles might this system encounter?

With the jet stream sagging far to the south, this system may have to battle wind shear along the northern Gulf.

You can see the wind shear forecast below; the colors in darker purple and white indicate strong shear. Wind shear disrupts, weakens and sometimes entirely prevents the development of tropical systems and hurricanes.

However, if the jet stream shifts a little farther north, there could be a window of opportunity for more strengthening. That will be something we have to watch closely in the coming days.

It is likely that this system will be weakening closer to landfall, if this system comes northward through the Gulf.

What you should do

If you're near the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, monitor the latest forecast for this system and have your hurricane plans ready to go, just in case.

Despite one of the least active hurricane seasons in years, that doesn't mean an impactful storm can't happen this late in the season.

And it doesn't take a hurricane to trigger major rainfall flooding, as we saw earlier this season with Tropical Storm Arthur's flooding in the South.

(MORE: Stay prepared this hurricane season)

Named storms of the Gulf so far

While El Niño continues to shred some systems before they form and weaken the ones that do, three storms have battled the conditions to actually get names and impact the Gulf Coast states. These storms may have not been hurricanes, but they did bring heavy rainfall to the region.

All systems like this one need is a window of an opportunity with relatively less wind shear, even in El Niño-assisted conditions.

Tropical Storm Arthur was a brief June storm that quickly reached tropical storm strength right before a Texas landfall. The low fell apart quickly after moving onshore, but its remnants brought torrential rainfall over the Gulf Coast. Arthur actually brought 37.53 inches to Alexandria, Louisiana, which was the wettest rainfall total caused by an Atlantic tropical cyclone.

(MORE: Arthur Recap)

In July, Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeast quadrant of the Gulf. It moved to the north before interestingly turning west and striking the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St. Bernard Parish Wednesday afternoon on July 22. Rainfall totals of 1-5 inches were widespread with isolated totals exceeding 5 inches.

(MORE: Bertha recap)

The next storm to impact the Gulf was Tropical Storm Edouard, which made landfall on Sept. 1, 2026. Winds were around 60 mph at the time of landfall and heavy rainfall was also reported.

Hurricanes can still form during strong El Niño years

Even though this hurricane season has proved to be one of the quietest on record, that doesn’t mean we can’t get an impactful tropical system or hurricane.

There have been seasons in the past that have managed to produce strong storms despite a strong El Niño.

The image below shows several hurricanes that have formed during super El Niño seasons from 1972 to 2015.