Winter Outlook: A Cold December, Then A Milder January, February?

What La Niña Means For Your Winter Outlook

A weak La Niña is expected to continue into meteorological winter, but it doesn’t have the final say-so for the temperature outlook for the season.

Here’s what you can expect from the upcoming months:

Meteorological Winter (December, January and February)

In general, we expect the coldest winter to be over the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains from Washington state to North Dakota, with temperatures leaning cooler-than-average from Northern California into the Upper Midwest.

On the other hand, much of the South from the Desert Southwest to Florida, as well as most of the Northeast, is forecast to have a warmer-than-average winter, according to the outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

The central and eastern Gulf Coast through Florida is also expected to be drier than average, in keeping with a typical La Niña winter.

December

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But that doesn’t mean the entire winter will behave the same way.

December could kick off much colder than average, especially from the Northwest to the Ohio Valley.

That’s because two factors, including La Niña and a weakening polar vortex high in the stratosphere, could team up to nudge the weather pattern into a colder one in December, according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

The regions most likely to see a bitterly cold start to the season? The Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, where any dips in the jet stream are likely to bring cold air on its path into the country.

The Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic should enjoy the cold while they can (or suffer through, just a little bit longer), because that’s not the outlook for the rest of the system.

(MORE: A Weak La Niña Is Coming This Winter. Here's How That Could Affect Your Snowfall.)

January

Once we hit January, a pronounced warm-up is expected (again, relative to average) in the eastern U.S., particularly the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast. The central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley are going from generally colder-than-normal to fairly significantly warmer-than-normal.

Talk about weather whiplash, am I right?

However, the Northwest and Northern Rockies are forecast to remain chillier than usual as the colder pocket begins to shrink.

But that’s just the average for the month, because the risk of colder bursts is bleeding out of the Rockies and plunging into the Plains, possibly into Texas.

February

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The South and East are getting lumped in together as part of a milder-than-average pattern for the final month of meteorological winter as the region of below-average temperatures retreats into the Northwest.

That doesn’t mean cold air is impossible, though, because the risk of cold air plunges leaking out of the most persistent cold air in the Northwest and western Canada into the Plains will remain.

Sara Tonks is a content meteorologist with weather.com and has a bachelor’s and a master’s degree from Georgia Tech in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences along with a master’s degree from Unity Environmental University in Marine Science.