No April Fools’ Day Pranks Here: April’s Monthly Outlook Got Bumped A Little Warmer

Here’s Your April Outlook

The April Outlook is here, and much of the country is tracking warmer than expected, according to the latest update from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2. But, not everyone will see warmer than average temperatures this month.

April Temperature Outlook

Above-average temperatures are expected from the Pacific Northwest to the Southwest, through the Central US to the Southeast. The only below-average area is again the Northeast.

Wetter than average conditions are expected for much of the Central US.

What Changed

This outlook actually has quite a lot of changes from the previous forecast.

The most important regions to bring attention to are the Southeast and the Pacific Northeast.

Southeast slightly warmer: Southeast has been upgraded to call for well above average temperatures for the region. These areas were mainly slightly above to above average before.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains to be warmer: The Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains saw a rather drastic shift as well. There was a more-below average area across the region, or a shade of darker blue. But this is gone now.

Slight reduction in below average for Midwest/Northeast: While the bulk of the Midwest and the Northeast will remain slightly below average, there is a slight trimming back of this slightly below average region, with slightly warmer than average temperatures expected further north.

Here are the average highs in April for any given year:

Precip outlook

If you notice the little region of above-average temperatures in the Central U.S., that is the increase in precipitation keeping the average temperatures down a bit.

Here’s The Why

To discuss the why, we have two main factors that are contributing to this map. First off, we have to talk about the Northeast.

The reason why the Northeast has been cool is due to a slow track to the north of the jet stream, typical of this time of year. This leads to more storms that can impact the Northeast, which keeps the temperatures down.

We also have to talk about the polar vortex, a low pressure spinning at the North Pole. When this low is strong, cool air gets stuck at the poles. But when this low weakens, it allows cooler temperatures to plunge south along the Northeast. This pattern also helps make it warmer in the West.

(MORE: Western Record Warmth)

Monitoring El Niño

The La Niña that was ongoing during the winter has largely subsided and an El Niño is on the way. This El Niño is expected to be strong, and that leads to some interesting conditions. It is also yet another factor that can contribute to temperatures over the coming months.

“The emergence of a strong El Niño over the next few months should limit the risks for big heat across the eastern US this summer, with the most anomalous heat extending from [Texas] northwestward to the Pacific Northwest”, warns The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

(MORE: What Is El Niño? | El Niño Forecast For The Summer)