Summer Outlook: Developing El Niño Could Keep Northeast Cooler As West Sweats

Here’s Your Summer Outlook

Summer 2026 may have some surprises in store, including cooler temperatures for some, searing heat for others and wetter weather for some drought-suffering areas through August.

Here is what you need to know according to the latest outlook released Thursday from Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company, covering both the upcoming summer (June through August) as well as May.

Key Takeaways

• A hot summer is likely in the Northwest and northern Rockies.
• Summer is expected to be hotter than average in much of the South from Texas to Florida, and much of the rest of the West.
• In parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes, summer may be a tad cooler than average, especially early and late.
• The Southwest U.S. monsoon — generally from July into September — may be wetter than average.

Monthly Details

The series of maps below shows the temperature outlooks each month from June through August.

As you can see, the axis of the most above-average heat migrates from the Rockies in June to the Northwest U.S. by July and August.

Also, notice some cooler than average conditions sneak southward along the Eastern Seaboard in June, and it could turn a bit chilly by August standards in the northern Great Lakes.

What About May?

A north-south split in temperatures is expected in May.

It's likely to be hotter than average in the Deep South and Florida, but could skew a bit cooler than average from the Northern Plains to New England.

Meanwhile, May could feature more drought-relieving rain in the Southeast and Plains.

But a drier month in both New England and the Northwest could maintain or worsen existing drought in those areas.

The Factors Behind The Forecast

The elephant in the room is what is expected to eventually become a strong El Niño by late summer or fall.

Its effect on summer weather patterns has previously limited the risk of persistent eastern U.S. summer heat, according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and chief author of the outlook.

But it has also previously increased the threat of summer heat from Texas to the Pacific Northwest, Crawford noted.

A stronger El Niño's potential "quieting" of the Atlantic hurricane season could also turn parts of the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida drier than average by July into August, though as we've previously discussed, it doesn't always erase the U.S. risk from tropical storms and hurricanes.

(SUPER EL NIÑO: Latest Outlook | Potential Hurricane Season Impact)

Ongoing Drought

Spring drought can worsen in summer as parched ground heats up faster than wet ground and lessens the moisture available for summer showers and thunderstorms.

That's a key concern in the West, where snowpack this past winter and spring was at a multidecadal low, and record heat parched much of the region in March.

Also, if more soaking rain doesn't materialize in the South through the rest of spring or early summer, its ongoing drought could either persist or worsen later in summer.

Keep in mind these outlooks are for a month or season as a whole. Periodic heat waves, wetter or drier weather is possible on the time frame of a week or so, even if an entire season is cooler, hotter, wetter or drier.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.