Spring 2016 Outlook: Warmer North, Cooler South

A warmer than average spring may be in store for the northern tier of the U.S. according to a March-May 2016 temperature outlook released by The Weather Company's Professional Division on Friday. Portions of the southern U.S., meanwhile may see a relatively cool March through May period.

The Southeast and southern Plains are currently expected to experience generally cooler than average temperatures this spring. The opposite is true for areas from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast which is where the best chance for much warmer than average conditions will be found.

However, it should be noted that spring is usually marked by large changes in temperature over a short period of time and the above forecast is the overall temperature trend expected over the next three months. Therefore, even in areas where above-average temperatures are depicted there will likely be periods of colder than average temperatures at times during the spring and warmer than average temperatures will be experienced at times in areas where generally below-average temperatures are expected.

Even though El Niño has peaked and will weaken over the next few months, it will still influence the overall expected temperature outlook of the contiguous U.S. through spring.

(MORE: Strong El Niño Will Weaken)

In addition to the weakening El Niño, the Pacific/ North American teleconnection pattern (PNA) is expected to play an important role in the expected temperatures over the next three months. The PNA is characterized by height anomalies over the western and eastern U.S. and is associated with changes in the location and strength of the jet stream in eastern Asia.

The PNA is influenced by El Niño and is expected to be in its positive phase this spring which translates to above-average heights in the Western U.S. and below-average heights over the Southeast. A positive PNA typically brings warmer than average temperatures to the extreme West and cooler than average temperatures to the South-Central and Southeast, which is what is generally what is expected this spring.

According to Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company's Energy division, "As we head into the late stages of this historically-strong El Nino event, most of the objective guidance is depicting widespread global warmth going through the spring into the summer. The long-range forecast models are unusually consistent in their message for the spring and early summer. Both the National MultiModel Ensemble (NMME) and the European forecast model (ECMWF) show an incredibly similar signal of warm-north, cold-south into early summer."

March Forecast

March looks to begin with colder than average temperatures in the East. Dr. Todd Crawford indicates that "there are concerns about colder risks as we head into the last days of February and into early March. This pattern looks somewhat similar to the forecasts from late January, prior to the extreme (but brief) cold shot." The end of March, on the other hand, is likely to be dominated by above-average temperatures.

Overall for the month, relatively warm temperatures will stretch from the Northeast into the central and northern Plains as well as the West. Significant warmth is even possible in the Pacific Northwest. 

Meanwhile, cooler than average temperatures are expected from the southern Plains into the South and the mid-Atlantic. Much below average temperatures may prevail in portions of the South.

April Forecast

A temperature change is currently expected in the Southeast going from March to April, as warmer than average temperatures are the expected trend for the month in the Southeast. Portions of the Southwest will also see a change, but to cooler conditions.

The warmth is likely to persist through the northern tier. However, the chance for significantly warmer conditons will shift from the Pacific Northwest eastward into the Midwest and Northeast.

May Forecast

Once again, most of the contiguous U.S. will see warmer than average temperatures during May. Much-above-average conditions are expected to dominate the northern tier from the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic into the Midwest, the northern Plains and Pacific Northwest.

The exception to the anomalous warmth will be from portions of the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast and into Florida.

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