What Meteorologists Watch For In July

As we head into the second half of the year, it's time for the month of barbecues, fireworks and pool parties. But July also has quite a few weather tricks up its sleeve.

Replace those classic July fixtures with stifling temperatures, impactful thunderstorms and an uptick in hurricane season activity - and now you have hit a meteorologist's July on the nose.

Here are five things we typically see during the month:

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1. The Hottest Time Of Year For Many

Is it getting hot in here? And by here, I mean the entire United States. If you find yourself asking this question too, the answer is a resounding yes.

July is the hottest month on average for an expansive part of the U.S. from the Great Basin to the Central Rockies, Central Plains, Midwest and East.

The sun is highest in the sky and delivers its most direct solar radiation over the Northern Hemisphere at the summer solstice in late June, but it takes days or weeks to warm up Earth's surface and then the air above it. That means there's a lag between the solstice and the hottest day of the year.

Highs in July are typically in the 80s and 90s for much of the contiguous U.S., with 70s in some locations closer to the Canadian border, along the Northwest coast and in the Rockies. Average highs in the 100s are typical in portions of the Desert Southwest in July.

2. Atlantic Hurricane Season Activity Begins To Tick Up

Thankfully, hurricane season is typically still rather slow in July. But there is a slight uptick in tropical activity - keeping anyone with a beach vacation planned on the edge of their seat.

The areas of typical formation also expand in the month of July. The eastern Caribbean Sea near the Lesser Antilles joins the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the East Coast as favored areas for tropical development.

July has accounted for about 7% of the hurricane season's tropical storms since 1851, which means roughly one named storm forms in the month each year. Hurricanes are more rare, with about one of those forming every three years.

Last July, Hurricane Beryl blew records out of the water - becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane and strongest storm for the month of July in the Atlantic Basin.

3. Severe Thunderstorm Threat Peaks In The Northeast

Severe weather season is often associated with the spring, but some parts of the country actually see their peak in July.

The jet stream migrates to the northern tier of the U.S. by July and is weaker than what we usually see in winter and spring. But because hot, humid air is so abundant in summer, it's easier for thunderstorms to form when even weaker disturbances ripple through the jet stream.

For this reason, areas from the Northeast westward through the Great Lakes and Plains are a favored corridor for concentrated severe weather in July.

The Northeast averages the greatest number of severe thunderstorm reports in July, according to a study by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This includes areas around Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. This severe weather peak also holds true in parts of the Great Lakes, Northern Plains and northern Rockies.

Severe thunderstorms often take the form of squall lines with damaging, straight-line wind gusts in summer instead of the tornadoes that dominate the spring. The number of tornadoes in the U.S. is cut almost in half from June (186) to July (98). But July has still typically been the fifth most active month for tornadoes, according to data from 2004-2023.

4. Southwest Monsoon Ramps Up

The month of July is when Mother Nature typically remembers to turn on the hose over the Desert Southwest, marking the switch into the wet phase of the monsoon.

When a dome of high pressure builds over the southern Rockies or adjacent Plains, moisture flows northward from the Gulf of California, the Eastern Pacific Ocean and westward from the Gulf of Mexico. This kicks off what can be a daily ritual of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the higher terrain over the Southwest.

Near the beginning of the monsoon's wet phase in July, when moisture isn't as plentiful, these thunderstorms may produce more wind than rain, whipping up an intense dust storm known as a haboob.

Heavy rain and flooding occur in the desert more often later in summer, particularly when moisture from a remnant of an Eastern Pacific tropical system flows into the region. Increased humidity at times can take away the common "dry heat" cliché.

The monsoon also fluctuates in how active it is from year to year. For example, 2020 was the driest monsoon on record for much of the Southwest. That was followed by one of the wettest monsoons in 2021.

5. Thunderstorm Clusters Are Common

Checking your radar on a July morning? Well, chances are you will probably see at least one cluster of thunderstorms across the U.S. known as a mesoscale convective system.

The appearance of an MCS on satellite imagery is particularly dramatic, often resembling a sunny-side-up egg covering parts of one or more states.

A 2019 study found July is one of two peak months for these batches of thunderstorms, which often rumble through the Plains and Midwest.

When these clusters of thunderstorms are fast-moving, they can produce widespread damaging winds known as a derecho. If they stall, flooding rainfall is often the result. Either way, they're usually prolific lightning producers, sometimes at a rate of several thousand strikes per hour.

Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.