Hurricane Hector Expected to Brush Hawaii's Big Island Wednesday

Threats From Ernesto Impacting US Coastal Areas

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Hurricane Hector remains a Category 4 hurricane in the central Pacific Ocean and, while expected to lose some intensity, is at least expected to brush by parts of Hawaii Wednesday.

Hector is centered about 900 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Hector is in an area with low vertical wind shear, which has allowed it to intensify into a powerful hurricane. The increasingly drier air along Hector's future path will induce slow weakening over the next few days.

A southward dip of the jet stream in the northern Pacific Ocean well to the north is pulling Hector a bit north of due west over the next day or so. After that, subtropical high pressure will build back again north of Hector and bend it west again.

(MORE: Hawaii's Hurricane History)

Forecast guidance is now unanimous with a track of Hector's center south of the Big Island Wednesday, then continuing westward, remaining well south of the rest of the Hawaiian chain through Thursday.

The key is how far south of the Big Island its center tracks.

However, the more north Hector tracks before turning westward again, the bigger direct threat the hurricane could pose to parts of the Big Island Wednesday.

The Big Island could see tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, particularly on the southern tip of the island and eastward-facing coasts. Some outer bands of locally heavy rain may also spread into the Hawaiian Islands from mid-late week.

We also can't rule out at least a few tropical-storm force gusts in other parts of the islands, again depending on how far north the center tracks.

Increasing swells will lead to high surf and dangerous rip currents at east-facing beaches, spreading to south-facing beaches, regardless of the exact track.

(MORE: Hector Won't Be the First Tropical Cyclone to Pass Near Hawaii's Erupting Kilauea Volcano)

Several reconnaissance flights have been scheduled into Tuesday to help determine the large-scale weather pattern associated with Hector's future path. This could help improve forecast guidance early this week and allow for additional details on what impacts to expect from Hector.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands, particularly the Big Island, should monitor the progress of Hector. 

(MORE: Hurricane Preparedness Tips from NOAA)