NOAA’s First Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Predicts Activity Well Above Average

The first official forecast for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season from the U.S. government calls for an extremely active season.

NOAA's outlook is historic: NOAA expects at least 17 and up to 25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes this season. These are the highest numbers forecast by NOAA for any May outlook. It also predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season.

I​n addition, NOAA is forecasting 150-245% of normal Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a metric measuring how long storms last and their severity. The higher the number, the more active the season is.

According to the NOAA forecast, we will use all of the names of the primary list, plus four additional names on the new supplemental list that was recently added.

The average season over the last 30 years has had 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, including three Category 3 or stronger.

(​MORE: How Past Hurricanes Seasons Have Turned Out After Change To La Niña)

Water temperatures already near typical seasonal peak: The tropical Atlantic is now as warm as it typically would be in mid-August and the Caribbean Sea is now warmer than it would be at any time during the year, according to Dr. Kim Wood, associate professor at the University of Arizona.

This is the single biggest alarm bell signaling an extremely active hurricane season. In 2023, warm water temperatures were able to overcome the effects from a strong El Niño, which would have typically squelched hurricane season. Water temperatures are currently warmer than they were at this point in 2023.

Another metric used to measure hurricane fuel, ocean heat content (OHC), is also at record values for this time of year from the Caribbean Sea to the tropical Atlantic east of the Windward Islands, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami. OHC measures how deep warm waters go below the surface of the ocean.

El Niño continues to chill: NOAA’s most recent update released on Monday gave La Niña a 69% chance of beginning by July-August-September. That chance of water temperatures cooling enough to meet La Niña criteria grows to 77% in the peak of hurricane season centered around September.

There shouldn't be a strong wind shear nor sinking air over storms this season. La Niña typically allows for more tropical storms and hurricanes.

R​obust African monsoon adds to seasonal confidence: NOAA added that an above average monsoon in western Africa, meaning that tropical waves that take off from that region will enter the Atlantic with more moisture and generally will be more healthy. This may increase the rate of tropical wave to tropical depression or storm conversion in the peak of hurricane season across the basin.

Other recent hurricane outlooks:

-The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2: 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and six Category 3+ hurricanes

-Colorado State University: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five Category 3+ hurricanes

-North Carolina State University: 15-20 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes and 3-4 Category 3 hurricanes

Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.