Hurricane Central

Milton Rapidly Intensifies Into Hurricane, Taking Aim At Florida Gulf Coast Midweek

At a Glance

Milton has rapidly intensified into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
Some parts of the Florida Gulf Coast will likely receive strong winds and life-threatening storm surge.
Heavy rainfall will be a widespread threat for Florida.
Milton is expected to make landfall on Florida's west coast as a major hurricane.

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Milton has rapidly intensified into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, as of Sunday afternoon.

The storm is expected to continue to strengthen before making landfall as a major hurricane threat on the west coast of Florida sometime on Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center says that "there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday."

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

Hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida later on Sunday. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Know your evacuation zone now, and plan for additional power outages in the days to come.

(MAPS TRACKER: Track the storm here)

Where the storm is currently: The hurricane is churning over the Gulf of Mexico almost 300 miles northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is expected to move eastward or northeastward toward the Florida Peninsula, then into the Atlantic.

Much of the current computer guidance suggests that a stronger hurricane threat for Florida is growing, and the NHC is currently forecasting the system to approach Florida as a Category 3+ hurricane.

Milton may pass well south of the Florida Big Bend and is not expected to bring as much surge as Helene brought to that region. That said, some areas that saw storm surge from Helene very well could see storm surge from this system, especially from Pinellas County to Naples. There is an outside shot that storm surge could be higher than Helene brought in a location or two, particularly further south.

Impacts Forecast

Potential Flooding: Rainfall is expected to arrive well in advance of this system's arrival due to a frontal boundary sagging into the region. Scattered heavy rain showers have already begun across Florida on Sunday. Flood watches are already in place for much of the peninsula.

With the system itself, rainfall in Florida is one impact we expect to see over the next week and it could lead to flooding in some spots. Much of the peninsula should see at least 3 inches of rain, but some spots could see closer to a foot of rainfall.

The heaviest rain is expected to arrive by Tuesday or Wednesday on the Florida peninsula.

(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)

Wind Damage: Most of the new computer guidance suggests that a Category 3 hurricane will develop, though some models have a stronger storm than this. Residents should prepare as if a Category 4 or 5 hurricane is anticipated.

This system has the potential to bring damaging winds to the west-central or southwest Florida coast Tuesday night or on Wednesday, but exactly where those winds will occur and how strong they will be remains a question.

Any hurricane preparations or recovery and rebuilding efforts should be finished by Tuesday evening. After that time, those efforts could be dangerous.

How much damage occurs depends on how strong the system gets. While water temperatures are plenty warm for development, wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico could be one obstacle to the intensification of Milton. Wind shear could begin weakening this system near Florida over the Atlantic, but it is not a guarantee.

Forecast Sustained Winds
(This should be treated as a broad outlook for wind strength late Tuesday. Winds could increase or decrease before they reach the coast. )

Rip Currents: Strong onshore winds along Florida's Atlantic Coast will create the threat of rip currents through the weekend and into early week. These rip currents may occur without rainfall.

Along the Gulf Coast, a rip current threat could develop by early week from Tampa southward.

The western Caribbean and Gulf are typical areas for tropical development in October. Go to this link to see how hurricane season usually changes in the new month.

Check back with us at weather.com for updates in the coming days as the details come more into focus.