Hurricane Central

Hurricane Milton Intensifies Into A Category 4; Prompts Hurricane And Storm Surge Watches In Florida

At a Glance

Milton has rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane and storm surge watches are in effect along Florida's western Gulf Coast.
Milton will bring life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to Florida midweek.
Heavy rainfall will bring a widespread flooding threat.

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Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 and hurricane and storm surge watches are now posted along Florida's western Gulf Coast, where the storm poses threats of life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rainfall by midweek.

"Milton will be a historic storm for the west coast of Florida," the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay said in a briefing Monday morning.

If you are in an area prone to storm surge, follow the advice of local officials and evacuate if ordered to do so. This is a serious situation with the National Hurricane Center forecasting a storm surge as much as 8 to 12 feet above ground level along the western Florida Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay, if the peak surge arrives at high tide.

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Here's where hurricane and storm surge alerts are in effect: A hurricane watch is in effect along much of the western Gulf Coast of Florida from Chokoloskee northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. This means hurricane (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Tropical storm watches extend north and south of the hurricane watch into Florida's Big Bend and along the southwest Florida coast.

A storm surge watch stretches from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. This means a life-threatening water rise from storm surge is possible in the area, generally within 48 hours.

Here's the latest status on Milton: The hurricane is churning over the western Gulf of Mexico 735 miles southwest of Tampa. It's a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and is tracking east-southeast at 8 mph.

Milton has more than doubled the criteria for rapid intensification. Its winds increased from 65 mph at 10 a.m. CDT on Sunday to 150 mph at 8:05 a.m. CDT Monday.

Here's the latest timing and intensity forecast: Milton is forecast to continue strengthening and there is some chance it could briefly hit Category 5 strength over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The forecast calls for Milton to undergo some weakening on approach to Florida because of increasing wind shear and dry air, but it should remain a major hurricane through landfall sometime later Wednesday into early Thursday.

It's important to note that this possible weakening won't reduce the impacts we see from Milton, including a serious storm surge. Milton could also grow larger on approach to Florida, allowing its wind, storm surge and rainfall impacts to sprawl out across a bigger area.

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

Impacts Forecast

Storm Surge

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast calls for storm surge to be as much as 8 to 12 feet above ground level if the peak surge coincides with high tide along the west-central Florida Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Storm surge could be as much as 5 to 10 feet as far south as Fort Myers Beach and in areas north of Tampa Bay.

Low tide on much of the west coast of Florida is Wednesday afternoon and high tide is Thursday morning.

Expect adjustments to the storm surge forecast shown below based on the track of Milton.

Storm surge will be most destructive near and to the south of where the storm’s center crosses the coast. As mentioned earlier, if you are in an area prone to storm surge, you should follow the advice of local officials and evacuate if ordered.

Storm surge should start building up on Wednesday before likely peaking Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Rainfall Flooding

Rainfall has been soaking Florida since the weekend because of a front draped across the state. Flood watches are posted across much of the Florida Peninsula because of this rain preceding Milton's arrival and rainfall from the hurricane itself by midweek.

Totals across the Florida Peninsula could be 5 to 10 inches, with locally up to 15 inches through Thursday. This could lead to considerable flash flooding and river flooding.

(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)

Wind Damage

This system has the potential to bring damaging winds to the western Florida Gulf Coast beginning Wednesday. The strongest winds capable of structural damage, downing trees and knocking out power will occur near where the center of Milton crosses the coast, which is still somewhat uncertain.

Areas farther away from the landfall point in the Florida Peninsula will see some strong wind gusts as well that could at least down trees and cause scattered power outages.

Any hurricane preparations or recovery and rebuilding efforts should be finished by Tuesday evening. After that time, those efforts could be dangerous.

Below is a look at the peak wind threat based on the current track of Milton. Note that this forecast could shift in future updates.

(This map from the National Weather Service shows the potential strongest winds (likely in gusts) that could occur. Areas in red or purple colors are most probable to see hurricane-force capable of more widespread tree damage, power outages and at least some damage to buildings. Areas in yellow and orange could see at least some sporadic downed trees and power outages.)

Tornadoes

An isolated tornado threat may develop in much of west-central and southern Florida by Tuesday night. The threat of a few tornadoes will then continue Wednesday and Wednesday night in the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

Check back with us at weather.com for updates in the coming days as the details come more into focus.