Tropical Development In The Atlantic Increasingly Likely As Hurricane Season's Final Month Begins

Hurricane season's final month has begun, and the National Hurricane Center is watching multiple areas for potential tropical development.

Here's the latest status on the Caribbean area to watch: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a broad area of low pressure is likely to form in the next day or so in the western Caribbean Sea (labeled system No. 1 below).

Once the area of low pressure forms, the region will be watched closely to see if it becomes better defined with concentrated thunderstorm activity. If that happens, a tropical depression or storm will likely develop by early next week.

T​he NHC is also watching a trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (labeled system No. 2 below) which will bring local flooding rainfall to those areas over the next several days. Its chance of tropical development is low before it combines with the aforementioned Caribbean disturbance.

T​he third and final interest area being watched by the NHC is in the Northern Atlantic (labeled system No. 3 below). The system could become a tropical or subtropical storm within the next few days.

The next Atlantic storm names are Patty and Rafael.

H​ere's where the potential Caribbean system might track: The NHC says the eventual broad Caribbean area of low pressure will only drift slowly to the north or northwest through the next several days. Regardless if it becomes a tropical depression or storm during that time, it will bring heavy rain to adjacent land areas in the western Caribbean.

I​t's possible this system could head into the Gulf of Mexico sometime mid- to late next week, but there is no guarantee it will bring any significant impacts to the U.S. Gulf Coast. That's because wind shear, dry air and cooling Gulf waters might be hostile factors to its ability to stay organized or even remain intact as it tracks farther north.

The Caribbean is a typical late-season storm formation location. Tropical storm formation chances usually continue to dwindle as we enter the final month of hurricane season.

(​MORE: What To Know About Hurricane Season's Final Stretch)

H​istorically, the area in yellow below stretching from the western Caribbean to the Bahamas as well as a separate area in the central Atlantic have had the most instances of named storm formations in November.

The last month of hurricane season generates a storm every one to two years, on average. In the past 10 years, the season's last storm fizzled as soon as Oct. 28 and as late as Dec. 7.

L​ast year, no storms formed in November.

But 2022 was quite the opposite, with Martin and Nicole developing into November hurricanes. Lisa also intensified into a hurricane during the month after forming as a tropical storm on Oct. 31.

N​icole eventually went on to strike the Atlantic coast of Florida as a Category 1, becoming just the fourth November hurricane to landfall in the mainland U.S. in records dating to the mid-19th century.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.