Why Hurricane Rafael Won't Be Another Disaster Like Helene And Milton

H​urricane Rafael will enter the Gulf of Mexico and while that sounds unnerving we don't forecast it to have anywhere near the magnitude of impacts of either Helene or Milton.

T​he current forecast: The latest projected path of this system from the National Hurricane Center is shown in the forecast graphic below. It's currently located in the western Caribbean Sea, but is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday as Hurricane Rafael.

I​f you look closely at that graphic, you might notice the forecast winds aren't as high as we've seen with Helene and Milton. You may also notice the forecast winds diminish near the end of the cone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

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W​hy Rafael should eventually weaken: To be clear, Rafael may have some significant impacts in the western Caribbean Sea.

B​ut as it moves toward the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week, it's expected to encounter conditions that would weaken it, rather than strengthen it. That's an environment more typical of November than the peak of the hurricane season.

Wind shear: Forecast models suggest wind shear will increase over Rafael once it's in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This increasing difference in wind speed and/or direction with height tilts a tropical cyclone, disrupting the heat engine that sustains it. If shear is strong enough, it can blow thunderstorms away from the center, spelling the system's final demise.

D​ry air: These same forecast models suggest Rafael may suck in dry air when it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico. Dry, sinking air disrupts tropical storms and hurricanes by suppressing thunderstorms and strengthening downdrafts of storms that are able to form.

Gulf not nearly as steamy: While there is still plenty of deep, warm water in the Caribbean Sea to support an intensifying storm, that warmth trails off considerably once in the central and northern Gulf, as you can see in the map below.

W​hile still higher than usual for early November, ocean heat content in Gulf waters is now roughly half of what it was when it was smashing records from late August through early October. All other factors equal, more ocean warmth will support stronger hurricanes.

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N​ot Helene, nor Milton: In late September, Hurricane Helene had a perfect setup to rapidly intensify before landfall.

As explained nicely by NOAA meteorologist Tomer Burg on X, Helene didn't face hostile wind shear, but rather winds aloft that spread apart over the hurricane, encouraging upward motion. It also moved over extremely warm Gulf water, allowing it to rapidly intensify to Cat. 4 status before landfall. A spinning upper-level low centered over western Kentucky pulled Helene's torrential rain and damaging wind well inland.

Hurricane M​ilton did battle some shear and dry air before its Florida landfall. But that was after it rapidly intensified over extremely warm southern Gulf water to one of the most intense hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Basin.

A​nd one could argue it's Milton's tornadoes - a record tally for any Florida outbreak - that was the most memorable aspect to that hurricane.

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM

-​ What November In Hurricane Season Usually Looks Like

-​ How Often Have Five US Landfalling Hurricanes Happened In One Season?

-​ 2024's Cat. 5 Hurricanes

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.