Hurricane Rafael Forecast To Landfall In Cuba, Then Weaken Over Gulf Of Mexico

Hurricane Rafael will make landfall in Cuba later today, then brush the Florida Keys as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico where weakening should commence due to multiple atmospheric and oceanic factors.

(​PERSPECTIVE: Seasons That Have Reached 11 Hurricanes)

H​ere's the latest status on this system: Hurricane Rafael is now a Category 2 and is centered less than 200 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba, and is tracking to northwest.

The hurricane struck Little Cayman and Cayman Brac overnight, where a wind gust to 80 mph was recorded. Earlier this week, Rafael brought flooding rain to Jamaica.

H​ere's the latest intensity and track forecast: Rafael will strike western Cuba at possibly near major hurricane intensity before moving into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.

W​estern Cuba can expect hurricane conditions (74-mph winds or higher) and life-threatening storm surge Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides from Cuba to the Cayman Islands and Jamaica.

W​hat we know about future Rafael's possible impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast: A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

Bands of rain containing gusty winds will impact this area through Wednesday night. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out in the Keys and far southwestern Florida as well.

I​t's too soon to know if Rafael will bring any significant impacts to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast after it passes by the Florida Keys.

As mentioned before, dry air, stronger wind shear and cooling waters should weaken Rafael substantially in the Gulf this weekend into early next week.

If a much weaker Rafael remains intact and turns toward the northern Gulf Coast, then it could enhance rainfall along a cold front this weekend into early next week. However, it's possible Rafael never reaches the U.S. Gulf Coast as an intact tropical cyclone and fizzles over the Gulf or even steers toward northern Mexico.

(​MORE: Why Rafael Isn't Expected To Be Another Helene Or Milton)

C​heck back to weather.com and The Weather Channel app for the latest forecast updates.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.