National Hurricane Center Watching For Development In Caribbean: Could This Become 'Melissa'?

Tracking Two Areas To Watch In The Atlantic

As we head into late October, the tropics aren’t ready to settle down quite yet.

The National Hurricane Center is watching two areas in the Atlantic for possible tropical development, one of which could be in the Caribbean next week.

Could this become "Melissa"? Let’s break down the possible scenarios.

Possible Development In Caribbean

The tropical wave of interest is currently tracking across the central Atlantic.

This large area of showers and thunderstorms could gradually develop over the next several days as it moves quickly westward.

Regardless of development, the Windward Islands could see gusty winds and heavy rain late this weekend before it enters the Caribbean Sea by early to mid-next week.

But what could happen once it reaches the record-warm waters of the Caribbean?

• Quick northward turn: The system could develop into a named storm over the warm waters of the Caribbean and then curve northward abruptly, impacting parts of the Antilles before heading into the Atlantic.

• Westward track into Central America: The disturbance could develop into a named storm, but rather than curve northward, it may continue tracking westward over the bathtublike waters into Central America.

• Later northward curve, potential U.S. impacts: A third scenario is that a named system forms in the Caribbean and takes a later northward curve. This could potentially bring impacts to Cuba, the Bahamas and the U.S.

• Nothing forms at all: There is currently only a low chance of development, so there is still a scenario where nothing forms at all, though wind and rain will still impact parts of the Caribbean.

As you can see, there is still a lot of uncertainty this far out in the forecast, but it's important to have this system on your radar and to check back frequently.

We will continue to closely monitor any developments as the system fights through pockets of high wind shear and dry air while tracking toward the Caribbean.

North Atlantic Area Of Interest

The other area that the NHC has flagged is located several hundred miles south of Nova Scotia, Canada.

This system is expected to track southeastward, where it could undergo some tropical or subtropical development while over the Gulf Stream before turning northward.

By early next week, the disturbance will move over colder waters, effectively ending any chances for development.

Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.