Hurricane Melissa Heads To Bahamas Next After Jamaica, Cuba Landfalls | Weather.com

Hurricane Melissa Heads Toward Southeast Bahamas, Bermuda Following Historic Jamaica Category 5 Landfall

Melissa sets its sights on the Bahamas and Bermuda after its historic Category 5 landfall in Jamaica and major hurricane lashing in eastern Cuba. Here's the very latest forecast and recap, so far.

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Melissa Moves Across Cuba; Bahamas Up Next

Hurricane Melissa is about to leave Cuba and sweep through the Bahamas today, then Bermuda late tomorrow with strong winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding following its historic Category 5 landfall in Jamaica and southeast Cuba lashing.

The devastating hurricane made landfall early Tuesday afternoon near New Hope, Jamaica, as a Category 5 with winds of 185 mph and a pressure of 892 millibars, a historic strike that will lead to months and years of recovery. This landfall will go down in the record books as one of the strongest anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.

(MORE: Track Melissa With These Maps | Live Updates)

Happening Now

Hurricane Melissa made its second landfall before sunrise Wednesday morning in far southeastern Cuba. According to the National Hurricane Center, the Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph came ashore near the town of Chivirico around 3:10 a.m. EDT.

Melissa is now carving through southeastern Cuba with high winds, flooding rain and coastal storm surge. Guantanamo Bay reported wind gusts up to 75 mph earlier this morning.

Bands of rain and wind also continue to stream across portions of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

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What's Left For Jamaica, Hispaniola, Cuba: Lingering Bands of Rain, Winds

Winds have diminished across Jamaica, but flooding could last for days.

The National Hurricane Center is warning that heavy rain could fall in southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday. Most of this rain has already fallen in those islands, but the runoff and transportation of water through rivers could take some time.

That torrential rainfall is likely triggering catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in Jamaica and Haiti, especially in hilly and mountainous terrain, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Heat will return as the hurricane moves away from Jamaica. Highs are expected to be well into the 80s in the coming days. Remember to drink plenty of fluids and run generators well away from doors, windows and garages.

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Additional Rain Forecast
(This should be interpreted as a broad forecast of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )

Current Alerts

The map below shows the latest watches and warnings in effect for Melissa.

A hurricane warning means hurricane-force winds are expected, and tropical-storm-force winds could persist for longer than a day, in this case.

A hurricane watch means those conditions are possible within 48 hours.

A tropical storm warning means those conditions are expected, in this case within 24 hours.

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Watches And Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. )

Up Next: Southeast Bahamas, Bermuda

After leaving Cuba, Hurricane Melissa will sweep quickly through the southeast Bahamas today, then make its closest pass to Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

In eastern Cuba, up to 25 inches of total rain could fall through today, with potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides.

In the southeast Bahamas, up to 10 inches of rain could fall through tonight, accompanied by a 5 to 8-foot storm surge.

The current intensity forecast for Melissa is denoted by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale categories in the forecast path graphic below.

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Current Status, Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path. )
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In eastern Cuba, hurricane-force winds are expected for a few more hours today, before subsiding.

In the southeast Bahamas, tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to develop soon and last into the evening.

Finally, in Bermuda, hurricane conditions could develop later Thursday into Thursday night, depending on the exact track of Melissa. These winds should quickly diminish Friday morning.

(MORE: Not Too Late In Season For An Intense Hurricane)

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Hurricane Wind Chances
(The contours above show the chance of hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph), according to the latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center. )

Melissa's History

Tropical Storm Melissa formed last Tuesday morning, the 13th storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, in the central Caribbean Sea.

Melissa was the first storm of the season to track into the Caribbean Sea. As you can see in the season-to-date tracks map below, most other storms and hurricanes have curled north of the Caribbean Sea this season.

That's due either to steering winds in the Atlantic, or hostile conditions for development in the Caribbean Sea prior to Melissa.

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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracks To Date

That's roughly on par with the average date of the 13th storm from 1991 through 2020 (Oct. 25), according to the National Hurricane Center. It's also one storm shy of the average number of storms for an entire season, 14.

However, it was almost a month later than the average fifth hurricane date of September 28.

Melissa then underwent extreme rapid intensification from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in just 24 hours from Saturday morning through last Sunday morning, feeding off the deep, warm water of the Caribbean Sea. It became the season's fifth hurricane.

It then became the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season early Monday morning as lightning lit up the hurricane's eyewall.

(MORE: Rapid Intensification Is More Common Than You Think)

Melissa maintained Category 5 status for 36 straight hours as it made its slow, agonizing turn northward toward Jamaica. According to WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry, only four other Atlantic hurricanes spent as much time or more at Category 5 intensity.

Melissa was the strongest tropical cyclone we've seen anywhere on Earth this year, even stronger than any western or eastern Pacific typhoon or hurricane, respectively.

In preliminary data, Melissa tied for the strongest Atlantic Basin landfall on record with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and 2019's Hurricane Dorian. The storm also tied for the second strongest storm based on peak winds, only behind 1980's Hurricane Allen.

(MORE: Where Melissa Ranked In History)

It was also the first Category 5 landfall anywhere in the Atlantic Basin since Dorian slammed the northwestern Bahamas beginning on Sept. 1, 2019.

Check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecast updates on Melissa, and elsewhere in the tropics.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.

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