Severe Weather, Drought Relief Possible Next Week

A storm system will begin to impact the Southern Plains next week, potentially bringing days of heavy rain and severe storms to the region. While there is still some uncertainty about who will see the worst impacts, our forecasts show that severe storms, large hail, damaging winds and even some tornadoes are possible.

This area actually needs the rainfall considerably due to the ongoing drought.

Timing

While there is some rainfall in the forecast Sunday and Monday that will shift toward the Northeast, what we are most concerned about begins Tuesday night. Gulf moisture will move northward and clash with the cool, dry air still in place over the Northern U.S. This is a classic scenario for severe weather.

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(For More: Spring Tornadoes)

Below is our latest forecast broken down day-by-day:

Tuesday Night

The threat for severe weather begins across the Southern Plains on the southern end of a storm system that begins to get more organized late Tuesday. Severe storms are possible from Texas to Missouri.

Cities That Could See Storms: Dallas, Springfield

Wednesday

The highest severe weather threat for now is focused on Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a convective outlook for the Southern Plains, from Texas to Arkansas. For now, the highest concern is wind damage and isolated large hail, though tornadoes are also possible.

(MORE: 5 Ways March Weather Can Be Frustrating, From Snowstorms To Tornadoes And Flooding)

The SPC began watching this area for potential severe weather Wednesday since late last week. Whenever they raise concerns about severe weather nearly a week out, it's usually worth paying attention.

Cities that could see storms: Dallas, Little Rock

Wednesday night - Thursday night

The chance of severe weather persists Wednesday night through Thursday night. While there is still some uncertainty, parts of the Central and Southern Plains, from Texas to southern Nebraska and east to Missouri and Arkansas, could see severe weather. Stay tuned with us as the forecast locks down for this upcoming week.

How Much Rain?

Rainfall is expected to be heavy at times with these storms, and several areas will receive multiple days of heavy rain even before the severe weather threat. The Weather Prediction Center has issued level 1 of 4 risks for heavy rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday across parts of the Southern Plains and the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Rainfall of 1-3 inches is possible with isolated higher totals where the heaviest storms train over the same locations.

Why The Lack Of Rainfall This Winter?

These parts of the country are very much in need of rainfall. Drought persists across much of the South, and the reason is actually fairly straightforward.

We have been under a La Niña this winter, which causes some significant impacts to our weather.

(For More: La Niña This Winter)

For those who need a quick refresher, a La Niña occurs when trade winds moving from east to west across the Equator over the Pacific Ocean ramp up, pulling warm water to the Western Pacific. This forces cooler water to rise to the surface across the Eastern region of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.

This simple change has a drastic impact on the weather around the world and is amplified in the winter.

For the U.S., when La Niña is ongoing in the winter, the jet stream is forced further north, leaving the South warmer and drier. That pattern sends most of the precipitation and cooler temperatures to the north.

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.