Baseball Size Hail, Tornadoes Could Develop

Severe thunderstorms, including the threat for a few tornadoes, are once again in the forecast for parts of the storm-weary Midwest Thursday, the latest round in a March of multiple outbreaks.

Some of the fuel for these severe thunderstorms will be record heat for late March feeding eastward from the Plains. You can read about this extended record March heat wave here.

Thursday's Forecast

What's The Timing?

We expect the first scattered severe thunderstorms to develop in the Midwest by late Thursday afternoon, generally in the northern areas shaded in the map below. This could include parts of the Chicago metro, and a delay is possible if storms develop soon enough for Opening Day at Wrigley Field. (Click here for more on the Opening Day forecast.)

By evening, we could have one or more clusters of severe thunderstorms sagging southward through parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and into western Pennsylvania. A few storms may also develop as far west as parts of Missouri, but that's more uncertain.

What Are The Threats?

- Large hail, possibly up to the size of baseballs

- Wind gusts capable of tree damage and some power outages

- A few tornadoes, possibly up to EF2 intensity

- Localized flash flooding

Be Prepared

If you're in the area shown above, there are three steps you can take to stay safe in severe weather:

1. Know where to seek safe shelter when severe weather strikes before the storm. If you live in a manufactured home, the safest place is probably either a designated community shelter or the closest building such as a church, industrial building or any building with reinforced concrete.

2. Have multiple ways of receiving official National Weather Service watches and warnings, including from your phone and NOAA weather radio. Make sure your devices are full charged in case you lose power and alerts are turned on to wake you up at night.

3. Seek safe shelter immediately when you receive a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning for your area.

(MORE: 14 Severe Weather Tips That Can Save Your Life)

Storm Fatigue

It has been yet another active March for severe weather in the U.S., including parts of the Midwest.

On March 6, four tornadoes struck southern Michigan, including an EF3 in Branch County killing three, an EF2 in Three Rivers and an EF1 tornado that claimed a life in Cass County.

Four days later, a lone supercell spawned five tornadoes across northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana, including the EF3 Kankakee, Illinois, tornado, which killed three.

Then on March 15, another 17 tornadoes were confirmed across central and southern Illinois.

And we just had a flare up of severe storms with hail and winds this past Sunday from Illinois to western Pennsylvania.

(RECAP: March Mania: 3 Severe Outbreaks And A Record Snowstorm)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.