Rain, Storms For Midwest, South Next Week

The first full week of May brings a multiday severe storm event. Storms are possible across the South Tuesday and Wednesday, with cities like Dallas and Baton Rouge able to see yet another round of storms in their area.

These areas were just some of the areas that got hit at the end of April, continuing the trend of the Central US seeing storms dating back to March.

(MORE: End Of April Recap Of Severe Weather Outbreak)

The Forecast

While there is a lower severe thunderstorm threat on Monday from Kansas to Ohio that includes Chicago, St. Louis, Indianapolis and Kansas City, the threat ramps up Tuesday and Wednesday.

For Tuesday, northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and most of Arkansas are in the bullseye for the strongest storms. That includes cities like Dallas and Shreveport.

On Wednesday, the threat spreads south and east, stretching from eastern Texas to western Alabama. Cities like Houston, Shreveport, Jackson and Birmingham will need to stay weather aware.

At this point, the main threats are looking to be large hail and damaging winds, but a tornado cannot be ruled out.

We'll be able to narrow in on specific threats and timing in the next couple of days.

The Setup

There are a couple of factors that are all coming together for this severe weather. We have a subtropical jet which is travelling across the southern U.S. This jet will help enhance moisture across the South.

There will also be a dip in the jet stream, known as a trough, coming over the Rockies. The conditions will be favorable for a low pressure system to form right in between these upper winds.

That trough will bring in unseasonably cool air while the subtropical jet will enhance the warm, moist air over the South. The clash of these air masses is a classic setup for May, the busiest month for tornadoes on average.

(MORE: What May Brings In Terms Of Weather)

Cool Air To Remain

The storm will drop the temperatures by about 10-20 degrees, bringing cool temperatures for much of the week. However, this cool air will not last very long as above average temperatures from the West will slowly shift east.

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.