February's Tornado Threat Is Typically Highest in the South

(FORECAST: Storm to Produce Snow, Severe Weather)

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes often develop in the winter months when a strong jet stream disturbance moves across the South, Ohio Valley or East and cold air near the surface is either in retreat or absent.

The map above shows where tornadoes occur most often in February: mainly in the Deep South, but also in the Ohio Valley or parts of the Carolinas from time to time. The South is at an elevated risk due to its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, where warm, moist air can surge northward, adding to instability in the atmosphere.

However, tornadoes can develop outside the red-shaded areas on rare occasions. On Feb. 24, 2016, Virginia's first deadly February tornadoes occurred, and the first F/EF2 or stronger February tornado on record formed in Pennsylvania.

February's Tornado History

February averaged 41 tornadoes in the 20-year period from 2000 to 2019. This makes it one of the three least tornadic months, generally on par with a typical January or December.

But there are extremes on both ends of the spectrum in the 20 years of February tornado data.

February 2008 and 2016 both had more than 100 twisters. On the other hand, four years from 2000 to 2019 had fewer than 10 tornadoes in the month. Last year's preliminary count for February was 11.

The record for the most February tornadoes was set in 2008, when 147 tornadoes were confirmed. February 2010 had the fewest tornadoes for the month, with just one.

The so-called Super Tuesday outbreak of Feb. 5-6, 2008, had the most tornadoes for a single February event, with 86 confirmed. Feb. 23-24, 2016, ranks as the second-largest February tornado outbreak with 75 tornadoes, according to NOAA's storm events database.

The most recent deadly tornado to strike in February hit Brunswick County, North Carolina, in 2021. Three people were killed by an EF3 twister, one of just 11 reported tornadoes in the month across the U.S.

Winter Tornadoes Are Dangerous

Several factors make winter severe outbreaks so dangerous:

Storms move rapidly: Severe thunderstorms can often move at speeds above 55 mph, given the strength of steering winds aloft. This is why it's best to take shelter immediately when receiving a warning. Don't go outside or look out the window first to verify the threat.

Tornadoes can be rain-wrapped: Brief, rain-wrapped tornadoes can sometimes form with little warning, embedded in long squall lines of severe thunderstorms, even if no supercell thunderstorms develop. In some supercell tornadoes, rain might hide the tornado.

Straight-line wind damage: A fast-moving squall line of severe thunderstorms can produce straight-line winds on the order of those estimated with EF0 or, in more rare incidents, EF1 tornadoes. Downed trees and power lines and even structural damage are possible in these situations, without a tornado in progress.

Severe weather can happen any hour of the day: Severe thunderstorms can erupt during the overnight hours or in the morning, not necessarily during the typical late-afternoon/evening time frame, with such strong jet-stream-level energy in winter.

If you don't have one, it's time to review or develop a severe weather plan.

Do you know where to take shelter if you receive a tornado warning in the middle of the night? How would you receive that warning? Severe weather will ramp up into March, followed by the peak months of April, May and June.

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