Major Northeast Snowstorms Have a Distinct Seasonal Peak That Begins Now

We've entered the time of year when major Northeast U.S. snowstorms are most likely to occur, according to more than 60 years of government data.

From 1956 to 2021, almost three-quarters of all Northeast snowstorms attaining a Category 3 or higher rating on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) have occurred in late January or February, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

Of the 35 such storms on that list, 26 of them have happened in late January or February. A dozen of those storms have occurred in the first two weeks of February.

Two of the three highest NESIS-rated storms happened in early March, the clear front-runner being the Superstorm of March 12-14, 1993.

Winter Storm Orlena is the most recent storm to be a Category 3 on the NESIS scale. It struck the Northeast Jan. 30-Feb. 3, 2021, and delivered New York City its first 1-foot-plus snowstorm in 5 years.

In general, widespread heavy snowfall over highly populated areas produces a high NESIS value.

This peak in major Northeast snowstorms from late January through February also shows up in average snowfall data for the Boston-to-Washington corridor.

In a typical season, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington D.C. see at least a small majority of their seasonal snow from late January through February.

Some Notorious Examples

Here are just a few examples pointing out this Category 3 or higher Northeast snowstorm climatological bullseye this decade.

• Late January 2016: Winter Storm Jonas was a record snowstorm for New York City, Baltimore and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
• Early February 2013: Winter Storm Nemo was a record snowstorm for Portland, Maine, and buried much of New England in multiple feet of snow.
• Early February 2010: Snowmageddon I and II hammered the Mid-Atlantic States just days apart. Hundreds of thousands were without power and some roofs collapsed.

Here are a few other memorable late-January and February major Northeast snowstorms prior to the 2010s.

• February 2003: Presidents' Day II storm produced 4-inch-per-hour snowfall rates in Philadelphia; Reagan National, Baltimore-Washington, Philadelphia and LaGuardia airports closed; record Boston snowstorm.
• February 1983: "Megalopolitan Snowstorm" crippled the entire Northeast corridor with 2 to 5 inch per hour snow rates, accompanied by lightning.
• February 1979: The original Presidents' Day snowstorm hammers Washington D.C. and the Mid-Atlantic states.
• February 1978: The Northeast's Blizzard of '78 crippled southern New England, in particular.
• February 1969: A large swath of 20-inch-plus snow buried eastern and northern New England.

Why the Peak?

There are no hard facts why this time of year has had so many big Northeast snowstorms.

This is a topic The Weather Channel senior meteorologist Stu Ostro has investigated.

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