Travel

Winter Outlook Travel Tips From A Meteorologist's Perspective

At a Glance

This winter's outlook looks warmer than usual for much of the country.
That could mean an even nicer winter, overall, in Florida.
A colder, snowier winter could be a skier's paradise in the Northwest.

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As winter travel picks up, there are some things you may want to keep in mind when planning your getaway to maximize your chance the weather may cooperate, given the latest outlook.

The latest outlook: As of the time this article was published, meteorologists at Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company were forecasting a warmer than average winter over much of the country, with the exception of the Northwest and Northern Plains, which could be chillier than average. You can see the monthly details and reasoning in our writeup here.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

How to use this for travel plans: These long-range outlooks are meant to be a snapshot of the overall nature of, in this case, the three months from December through February.

Meteorologists cannot predict a day's weather beyond about two weeks out. So, we can't tell you it will be rainy for your Caribbean winter getaway two months from now.

And there will certainly be some cold outbreaks in the South and East, as well as some warmer spells in the Northwest, at times, this winter.

I love travel as much as I love meteorology.

When I plan a vacation, along with looking at what weather is typically like, I also use outlooks to see if I can pick a place that raises the odds weather will cooperate, whether it's plenty of snow for a ski trip or warm sunshine for a getaway from the cold.

It's certainly not a guarantee, but think of it as like adjusting your financial portfolio to take a little excess risk out.

So, I'm happy to share some of my thoughts on winter ahead, from a travel angle.

Cascades, Northern Rockies Bonanza

If you can't wait to hit the slopes, your best bet for plentiful snow this winter will be the Cascades and northern Rockies, from Washington and Oregon to Idaho, Montana and northern Wyoming.

That's where the best combination of colder and wetter than average conditions are expected this winter.

Of course, much of the West usually will have plenty of both natural and man-made snow.

But again, if you want the highest odds, head north.

Don't Mind The Rain

Before we leave the Northwest, if you've always wanted to visit Seattle, Portland, or Vancouver, B.C., you might be able to score a cheaper flight in winter.

That's because the Northwest's dry season is in summer, and the winter months are among the wettest of the year.

So if you don't mind the classic Seattle drizzle or light rain, visit in winter. That seems more on brand, anyway, right?

A Great Winter In Florida

Snowbirds - those who flock to Florida each winter for weeks or months - this advice isn't really for you. We know you're headed south, or already there.

But if you're planning a vacation, this winter might be better in Florida than even its usual warm, sunny self.

That's because not only is winter 2024-25 expected to be warmer than average, but it's also expected to be drier than usual, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Winter already lands in the state's dry season, when only brief cold fronts with thin bands of rain interrupt the warm sunshine that leaves the state an envy of much of the nation.

So, your odds are better this winter of enjoying a stretch of nice winter weather in the Sunshine State.

The contrast in wet and dry season average rainfall in Miami, Florida.
(Data: NOAA/NWS)

Caribbean, To Be Sure

But even Florida gets at least a couple of brief cold snaps each winter. And if that happens on your vacation, it's frustrating. Instead of lounging at the pool or beach, you're wearing a hoodie.

I was born and raised, and currently live, in the upper Midwest. But the chilliest I've ever felt was on a trip to the Keys in January.

We arrived ahead of the arctic front. That warmth with a twinge of humidity felt great. Then the front blasted through. While daytime highs were still in the low 60s the following day, a 30 mph north wind made it a choppy ride out to Dry Tortugas National Park and the coldest snorkeling I've done. I didn't "expect" to have to deal with that in South Florida, so it felt colder to me than it otherwise would have.

I promised going forward that any winter getaway must have a much lower chance of such a chilly interruption.

So, if you want a better chance of avoiding that in winter, consider the central or eastern Caribbean. How about Punta Cana? Or better yet, the southern Windward Islands, Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao or Costa Rica.

Photo: Jonathan Erdman/weather.com — Here's a recent winter trip I took to Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. It was breezy, at times, but I didn't worry so much about an unwanted cold front.

Go North Or Higher

What if your ski plans are in the Midwest or East this winter.

First, some good news. We still expect a La Niña to develop this winter, though it looks to be both weak and short-lived.

Looking back at past weak La Niña winters, NOAA found they tend to be snowier than usual in the upper Midwest and parts of the Northeast, as the map below shows.

October-April snowfall departures from average (inches) during weak La Niñas from 1950 through 2009.
(NOAA)

The conundrum is the temperature outlook. If you remember from earlier, our forecast is generally warmer than average over much of the Midwest and East.

That doesn't mean it won't be cold at times, of course.

But if you need to plan well ahead for a multi-day ski getaway in the Midwest or East this winter, rather than a spur-of-the-moment hour drive to a nearby ski resort, you may want to go as far north or as high elevation as you can.

That may lessen the chances of finding the slopes icy during a warmer pattern than enjoying pure powder.

Think northern New England, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, or Snowshoe, West Virginia, instead of a lower elevation ski hill farther south, if you have to make plans in advance.

I'd love to hear other travel weather tips and stories you have. Hit me up on one of my social channels linked below.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM

- Winter Storms 101: How To Prepare

- What To Know About Snow Maps On Social Media

- Winter Outlook 2024-25

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter), Threads and Facebook.