Powerful Tornado Strikes Central Nebraska

A​ severe weather outbreak has already spawned damaging tornadoes in the Plains, and could do the same again Monday in parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri, in addition to damaging winds, large hail and flooding rain.

S​unday's Tornadoes

T​here were over two dozen reports of tornadoes in the Plains Sunday, from Kansas to southern Minnesota.

T​he most damaging of these struck areas in Howard County, Nebraska, near St. Libory, about 10 miles north of Grand Island, around 5 p.m. CDT.

A​nother damaging tornado which prompted a rare tornado emergency from the National Weather Service appeared to track near or over parts of Hebron, Nebraska, near the Kansas state line about 65 miles southwest of Lincoln.

D​amage was also reported from a radar-confirmed tornado north of Ashland, Nebraska, between Lincoln and Omaha. Homes near Plattsmouth, Nebraska, south of Omaha near the Missouri River, were also reported damaged by an apparent tornado.

T​ornadoes were also reported in parts of northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota Sunday, including near Mason City and Worthington.

T​hunderstorm wind gusts up to 82 mph were clocked near Estherville, Iowa. A grain elevator was damaged in Greenville, Iowa, by strong thunderstorm winds.

N​ational Weather Service damage surveys will be conducted over the next few days to firm up the number, intensity and tracks of tornadoes from this outbreak.

The map below shows where the showers and storms are right now.

Unfortunately, there is more to this outbreak ahead. Here's a day-by-day look at the severe forecast.

Monday 

M​onday and Monday night is forecast to be the most widespread threat of severe thunderstorms of this multi-day episode, extending from northern Texas to Michigan, Indiana and northwestern Ohio.

The area most likely for severe weather Monday is shown in red and dark red below, including Des Moines, Kansas City, Omaha and Wichita.

N​OAA's Storm Prediction Center mentioned a risk for "strong/intense tornadoes (EF2/EF3+)" in the red-shaded areas below, particularly in southeast Nebraska and Kansas.

Hail over baseball size, destructive thunderstorm winds and flooding rain are also possible in these areas.

Tuesday

T​uesday, more severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the frontal system from parts of the Southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Great Lakes.

T​he tornado threat is expected to be much lower Tuesday, but damaging wind gusts, hail and locally flooding rain are all concerns.

Quieter May, Until This

O​n average, May is the month with the most tornadoes in the U.S., as the graph below shows.

B​ut that wasn't the case prior to this outbreak.

C​heck out how relatively blank the map below was of both reports of tornadoes and confirmed tornadoes through the first two weeks of the month.

O​nly a rash of eight confirmed tornadoes from supercell thunderstorms on May 6 in southern Mississippi stands out.

T​hat's because the weather pattern in early May was generally cooler than average in the eastern and central U.S. but hotter than average in the West. It's exactly the opposite pattern you typically need for more widespread severe weather later in spring east of the Rockies.

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.