Atlantic hurricane season's least active start in 60 years
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We've had five tropical storms, but they've been short-lived. Here's why the season has been historically quiet so far.

Jonathan Erdman
ByJonathan Erdman
2 days agoUpdated: September 4, 2026, 9:42 am EDTPublished: September 4, 2026, 8:00 pm EDT
Atlantic hurricane season tracks through early September 2026

The tracks of the five tropical storms in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season through Sept. 4. (Note: The white sections of each track correspond to when each system was a remnant.)

(Data: NOAA/NHC)

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is off to its least active start in at least 60 years, struggling to generate long-lasting storms and even a single hurricane during an intensifying El Niño.

Five storms so far

This may sound surprising, given we've had five tropical storms. Edouard was the most recent of these, which dumped up to 2 feet of flooding rain over parts of eastern Texas.

That tropical storm pace is only about two weeks behind the average season, according to the National Hurricane Center.

(WATCH: How Edouard formed so quickly)

Record low activity

But none of those five tropical storms lasted long. Only Bertha in late July lasted longer than about a day in the Gulf in late July.

And it could be a record-long wait for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season, something that usually happens by the second week of August.

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Given all that, by another metric, we're at a record snail's pace this season.

Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, is a measurement meteorologists use to not just count storms, but also how long each storm lasts and how strong each becomes. Adding the ACE of each storm gives us one measure of how active a season is.

In terms of ACE, as of Sept. 4, it's been the slowest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since at least 1966, the first year satellites routinely covered the Atlantic Basin.

Record quietest start 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

This graph shows the ACE index for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season through Sept. 4 in blue, the average season ACE in black, and other ACE index values of hurricane seasons in the satellite era since 1966 in gray.

(Data: NOAA/NHC)

Isn't it the peak time?

September is typically the most active month of the season.

That's because sea surface temperatures are at their warmest and atmospheric conditions are the most favorable for tropical development.

September Atlantic hurricane season peak

This graph shows the average storm, hurricane and major hurricane tallies from 1944 through 2020 in the Atlantic Basin. The yellow area highlights an average September.

(Data: NOAA/NHC)

El Niño's thumbprint

The intensifying El Niño has been the largest contributor to the way this hurricane season has unfolded.

Stronger El Niños typically increase wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction, in the Atlantic Basin. This increase in wind shear can shred storms before they even develop, or weaken ones that do.

Wind shear since July from the Caribbean Sea to just off the west coast of Africa has been the strongest on record for that time of year since 1979, according to Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach.

It was this wind shear and dry air that spelled the quick demise of Tropical Storm Dolly in late August and has squashed other tropical waves moving westward off Africa that often give rise to storms and hurricanes this time of year.

That will likely continue. The map below shows all September hurricanes during super El Niño years.

(MORE: Your guide for everything El Niño)

Super El Niño named storms in September.

There was only one September hurricane in each of those years.

So what should you do?

A quieter hurricane season doesn't necessarily mean your area won't experience a storm this year.

It only takes one destructive landfall, or even a slow-moving, flood-producing weaker tropical storm, to make a season memorable.

Pay attention throughout hurricane season.

Should a storm find a pocket of favorable conditions, a named storm can suddenly develop. Should this occur closer to land, you won't have as much time to prepare.

Have a plan in place before storms form.

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Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.

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