Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the western Gulf and is likely to become Hurricane Isaias before it brings heavy rain and gusty winds to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida.

Isaias is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Where it is now

The National Hurricane Center has said that Tropical Depression Nine has formed, meaning that the cluster of thunderstorms in the western Gulf has attained a closed circulation, but hasn't yet gotten winds of 40 mph.

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It could be designated Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) later today, the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, if winds reach at least 39 mph.

The National Hurricane Center has tentatively scheduled the first low-level hurricane hunter flight into this system for Wednesday.

(MORE: Hurricane season maps tracker)

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(MORE: What all these tropical terms mean)

Where it could go and when

Typical for this early in the forecast, there are uncertainties both in where it goes and how fast it moves.

Where it goes

First, it's expected to drift for a time toward the east, before its northward pull toward the Gulf Coast.

You can see in the computer model forecast tracks below that Isaias could track anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle by late Friday or early Saturday.

Beyond that, Isaias will likely get pushed well inland over the Southeast.

Much of the storm's impacts will likely be along and east of the storm's path.

(Hurricane preparedness: What you need to know during hurricane season)

How strong it could get

This storm is expected to benefit from water temperatures well into the 80s in the Gulf, plenty warm for intensification over the few days.

But, with the jet stream sagging far to the south, Isaias will have to battle wind shear.

That matters because wind shear is hostile for developing and active tropical systems, tilting them or sometimes even outright preventing them from developing.

The question is how much and for how long will wind shear affect it.

• If wind shear is stronger, more persistent: Expect a weaker storm
• If it experiences less wind shear, at least for a time: Isaias could become stronger, possibly a hurricane, at least temporarily.

You can see the wind shear forecast below; the colors in darker purple and white indicate strong wind shear.

Since the wind shear is expected to become stronger the farther north Isaias goes, it is likely to lose some wind intensity closer to landfall.

For now, the most likely intensity near landfall as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.

The potential impacts

Where and how significant the impacts will be depends on the exact track, how fast it moves and strong Isaias is.

Given the uncertainty this early, the details also remain uncertain.

But in general, the most significant impacts will be felt along and to the east of the track of the storm and its inland remnant. That includes where storm surge flooding, strong winds and isolated tornadoes could be felt near the Gulf Coast before and some time after landfall.

Heavy rain from Isaias could arrive along the Gulf Coast as soon as Friday, then will push well inland through the rest of the weekend. As much as 10 inches could fall locally, with most receiving between 3-6 inches.

Locally flooding rainfall is possible as far inland as most of the Southeast, Appalachians, possibly parts of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic this weekend.

What you should do

If you're near the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida, monitor the latest forecast for this system and have your hurricane plans ready to go, just in case.

Be prepared for power outages that could last at least several hours, or possibly multiple days.

Despite one of the least active hurricane seasons in years, that doesn't mean an impactful storm can't happen this late in the season.

And it doesn't take a hurricane to trigger major rainfall flooding, as we saw earlier this season with Tropical Storm Arthur's flooding in the South.

If you're in the Southeast, including the Appalachians, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, be on the lookout for flash flooding this weekend. Avoid flash flood-prone areas and never drive into flooded stretches of roads.

(MORE: Stay prepared this hurricane season)

Named storms of the Gulf so far

While El Niño continues to shred some systems before they form and weaken the ones that do, three storms have battled the conditions to actually get names and impact the Gulf Coast states. These storms may have not been hurricanes, but they did bring heavy rainfall to the region.

All systems like this one need is a window of an opportunity with relatively less wind shear, even in El Niño-assisted conditions.

Tropical Storm Arthur was a brief June storm that quickly reached tropical storm strength right before a Texas landfall.

The low fell apart quickly after moving onshore, but its remnants brought torrential rainfall over the Gulf Coast. Arthur actually brought 37.53 inches to Alexandria, Louisiana, which was the wettest rainfall total caused by an Atlantic tropical cyclone.

(MORE: Arthur Recap)

In July, Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeast quadrant of the Gulf. It moved to the north before interestingly turning west and striking the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St. Bernard Parish Wednesday afternoon on July 22. Rainfall totals of 1 to 5 inches were widespread with isolated totals exceeding 5 inches.

(MORE: Bertha recap)

The next storm to impact the Gulf was Tropical Storm Edouard, which made landfall on Sept. 1, 2026. Winds were around 60 mph at the time of landfall and heavy rainfall was also reported.

Hurricanes can still form during strong El Niño years

Even though this hurricane season has proved to be one of the quietest on record, that doesn’t mean we can’t get an impactful tropical system or hurricane.

There have been seasons in the past that have managed to produce strong storms despite a strong El Niño.

The image below shows several hurricanes that have formed during super El Niño seasons from 1972 to 2015.