The polar vortex is about to undergo an unusually early stretching while super El Niño is still intensifying, competing for influence on weather in the U.S. and Europe later in November and December.

What is the polar vortex?

The polar vortex is a swirling cone of low pressure over the poles in the colder months high in the atmosphere.

And by high in the atmosphere, we mean over six miles above the ground, much higher than where most of the weather you're familiar with happens.

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Almost 13 years ago, the "polar vortex" entered into pop culture during a January 2014 cold outbreak. But scientists have known about it for many years, even before the Civil War.

(MORE: Learn about the polar vortex)

What could happen

The polar vortex can vary in strength, shape and location throughout the colder months.

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When it's strong, centered over the pole and circular, it tends to lead to weather patterns that keep any cold air bottled up in the far north.

But that's not what's expected for early November.

Computer models are forecasting the polar vortex to become weaker and stretched, like pulling at both ends of a rubber band.

That's often caused by a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). By sudden, we mean temperatures in the stratosphere can sometimes skyrocket by up to 50 to 70 degrees or more in just a few days.

And this weakening could be unprecedented this early in the season, according to Judah Cohen, MIT research scientist and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research.

Why this could matter

Cold air can and does plunge into the U.S. and Europe without hiccups in the polar vortex.

While it doesn't always happen, these hiccups in the polar vortex can gradually drip or leak downward and eventually affect the jet-stream pattern that drives our weather.

When the polar vortex is weaker, such as is forecast for early November, blocking patterns may eventually set up that influence the persistence of cold air masses weeks later. In this case, that could happen sometime in late November or early December.

One such pattern that can set up is called a Greenland block, pulling more persistent colder air into the eastern U.S.

(MORE: The latest November outlook)

Will that happen this time?

As in life, sometimes the atmosphere offers conflicting signals.

First, there's what is likely to be a record-strong El Niño exerting a heavy influence on the weather pattern through the winter, as it already has during hurricane season.

"Any blocking-related impacts will likely struggle to offset the strong warmer influences of (this strong) El Niño," said Joshua Senechal, senior meteorologist with The Weather Company energy forecast team.

"The Northern Hemisphere is just not in prime winter mode to facilitate any big cold shots, especially in North America," added Michael Shuman, The Weather Company energy team senior meteorologist.

Senechal noted the orientation of the stratospheric warming favors more impacts in Europe by late November and early December than North America.

"It's possible that the late November to early December timeframe could be nudged a bit cooler here in (the) U.S., primarily in the East," Senechal noted.

And in another winter outlook, the team at Atmospheric G2 headed by Todd Crawford is forecasting the warmest November-through-January period on record in the U.S.

(COMPLETE COVERAGE: Super El Niño)

More polar vortex hiccups later?

This may not be the only weakening of the polar vortex this season.

Atmospheric G2's Todd Crawford noted computer models suggest a higher than usual chance of another pinching of the polar vortex some time in January or February.

That may have some impact on weather in February or March in the U.S. or Europe.

But once again, the intense El Niño will still be in play. It's also not certain whether another polar vortex weakening will happen at all.

And these aren't the only factors that can influence the weather pattern.

Perhaps the only certainty beyond a record El Niño is to expect a weird winter ahead.

(MORE: Potential El Niño winter impacts)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.