Why The Atlantic Hurricane Season's Active Phase Could Arrive Earlier This Year

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season may ramp up earlier than usual, despite heading toward a usually quieter month of July.

"A" storm, already: The season's first storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, formed in the western Gulf of Mexico on June 19 before quickly sliding into Mexico, bringing storm surge flooding and heavy rain.

That's in line with an average June, which usually produces a storm every one to two years, as senior meteorologist Chris Dolce previously wrote.

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Most of the season ahead: Using a metric called the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) index, 98% of the hurricane season's activity is still to come in an average year from July on.

The season's first hurricane usually holds off until late July or early August, leading into the first of three months with the most activity.

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Danger signs: The same worrisome factors we've been monitoring this spring and early summer are still in place.

-​ Ocean water is record warm for this time of year in much of the basin, from Africa to the Caribbean Sea. All other factors equal, warmer water will support stronger hurricanes.

-​ A La Niña is likely to develop later in the season. That usually makes the atmosphere more supportive for tropical storms and hurricanes and could also steer more storms toward the U.S. instead of curling out to sea like last year.

July in most active hurricane seasons: We examined July during the 10 most active hurricane seasons on record in the satellite era, based on the aforementioned ACE index. This index takes into account not just the number, but also the intensity and longevity of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Past hyperactive hurricane seasons became busy in July, instead of waiting for the August-October seasonal peak.

T​hese 10 most active seasons generated an average of two to three July storms and one hurricane. That's more than double the average of roughly one July storm and one July hurricane every two to three years.

O​nly two of those 10 most active seasons failed to generate a July storm. But one of those seasons – 2004 – produced a tropical depression on the last day of July that would then become Alex on Aug. 1. And that season featured the notorious "Florida foursome" of hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.

Where those July storms tracked: A​mong the most notable July landfalls were 2005's Hurricane Dennis (Category 3) in the Florida Panhandle, Hurricane Emily (Category 4) near Cozumel and 1996's Hurricane Bertha in North Carolina.

Two other July storms would eventually make August hurricane landfalls, including 2020's Isaias in the Carolinas and 1995's Erin in Florida.

While every hurricane season can be different, these past busy seasons suggest it may become active quickly in July.

It's not too late to develop or refresh your hurricane plan. The time to do this is as soon as possible, not when a hurricane threat is just days away.

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM

-​ America's Strongest Hurricanes Were Tropical Storms Just Days Away

-​ Hurricane Season Terms You Need To Know

-​ How Climate Change Is Affecting Hurricanes

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.