Severe Threat, Including Tornadoes, Returns To Plains Starting This Weekend, Lasting Into Next Week

Plains Brace For A Multiday Severe Risk

The severe weather season is well underway as a multiday severe storm threat is setting up for parts of the Plains this weekend into early next week.

The threats of damaging winds, large hail and even tornadoes are all possible.

Timing

While a couple of storms are possible for the Plains to end the week, the threat really ramps up on Saturday. The map below shows all the days, but there will be a more detailed breakdown for each day below.

The locations and intensity of the following days may change, so check back with us regularly for the latest.

Saturday

The threat of severe storms is greatest across parts of western Texas and the panhandle of Oklahoma. Conditions will be increasingly favorable throughout the day for severe storms to fire along a potential dryline, which could threaten cities like Lubbock and Amarillo, Texas, with large hail and gusty winds.

(MORE: What Is A Dryline?)

Sunday

On Saturday night, strong winds will bring plenty of moisture from the Gulf into the region, setting the stage for Sunday's severe threat. Combined with the increased instability in the air and more favorable conditions aloft, we could see a higher chance of tornadoes on Sunday, along with the usual gusty winds and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) even says that a “substantial severe threat would be possible” including “supercells.” The cities with the greatest chance for severe on Sunday are Dallas, Austin and Oklahoma City.

Note that a powerful supercell was the bringer of destruction from gusty winds, large hail and several tornadoes during an outbreak in March.

Monday

That warm, moist, unstable air just mentioned will spread farther north on Monday, which means the threat of severe weather will stretch from Texas to southern Wisconsin. The threats for this day continue to be large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Cities like Dallas, Oklahoma City, Kansas City and Des Moines could all see severe weather.

Tuesday

The trough across the West will finally shift east, which means we will see yet another day of severe weather. This time, the threat is from Texas to southern Illinois. Tuesday's forecast has the most uncertainty, so this outlook is most subject to change. But, for now, cities like Dallas, St. Louis and Little Rock should be prepared.

The SPC does again mention “substantial severe threat would be possible”.

Why The Multiday Severe?

What is going on here is actually pretty interesting. We have a high pressure system that is sitting across the eastern U.S. This is forcing Gulf moisture to be pushed northward across the Plains.

We then have a trough in the jet stream across the West, which is trying to pivot in the Central Plains. Troughs like this generally bring severe weather, and this trough is slow moving.

Because of the high pressure system across the East and the slow nature of this trough, severe weather will be slow moving and will hit many of the same areas for days.

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.