The Latest Update About The Upcoming El Niño

Are you in the process of making summer travel plans? There are some things you may want to keep in mind if you want to maximize your chance of great weather, given our just-released outlooks and the potential for a strengthening El Niño.

The latest outlooks: As of the time this article was published, meteorologists at Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company were forecasting a hotter than average summer in the Northwest U.S. and much of the South, while parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes could skew a bit cooler from June through August.

We also expect a less-active-than-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026.

(OUTLOOK DETAILS: Summer | Hurricane Season | El Niño)

How to use this advice: These long-range outlooks are meant to be a snapshot of the overall nature of, in this case, the three months from June through August, as well as the duration of hurricane season through November.

Meteorologists cannot predict a day's weather beyond about two weeks out. So, we can't tell you if thunderstorms will be a persistent pest during your summer trip or if a tropical storm or hurricane may threaten your Caribbean cruise.

And there will certainly be some heat waves, at times, this summer.

I love travel as much as I love meteorology.

When I plan a vacation, along with looking at what weather is typically like, I also use outlooks to see if I can pick a place that raises the odds weather will cooperate, whether it's a longer trip to the mountains, or just a weekend getaway.

It's certainly not a guarantee, but think of it as like adjusting your financial portfolio to take a little excess risk out.

So, I'm happy to share some of my thoughts on the summer ahead, from a travel angle.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Caribbean Cruise In Hurricane Season

With the cost of travel increasing, one way you can save money on a cruise is during hurricane season.

That sounds risky. The last thing you want to deal with is the headache of shifting plans as a hurricane threatens your cruise.

This year, however, I'd consider booking a Caribbean cruise, even during the heart of the season.

A potentially strong El Niño is why.

Check out the map below. As we discussed in a recent piece, there hasn't been a single hurricane in the Caribbean Sea in hurricane seasons with a super El Niño since the mid-1960s.

We can't guarantee that will hold again this season, but if ever there's a year to give this a try, it's 2026. Just buy travel insurance, in case a hurricane breaks through that stronger El Niño.

Careful In The West

This one tugs at my heartstrings, as I spent two years in Colorado, and the West is my favorite vacation spot in the country any time of year.

Much of the West is in drought right now, following a winter season with the least snowpack in at least a couple decades, following a record hot March.

The summer outlook has the most persistent, above average heat in the West, as summer sunshine parches that dry ground. Then there's the typical summer monsoon of almost daily afternoon thunderstorms that typically kicks into gear in the Southwest starting in July.

This is a prime setup for a potentially nasty summer of wildfires.

If you have plans to visit the West this summer, I would skew toward early summer (early-mid June) rather than late summer (August). That could mean fewer wildfires and less wildfire smoke to deal with.

And on your trip, check The Weather Channel app and tap on "Breathing" to check your local air quality.

Less Hot Vacation This Year?

Did you notice in the first map above that blue shading in parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes.

Yes, summers during developing stronger El Niños can skew a little cooler in these areas.

That might be great news for if your kids complaining on a hot, humid vacation isn't your cup of tea.

But if a beach, lake or hotel swimming pool is what you look forward to, keep in mind it may not necessarily be hot enough during your summer trip in parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast.

That may particularly be the case in August. Our August outlook could be quite cool in the northern Great Lakes.

So, you might need a light jacket or, gasp, a hoodie, if you're visiting Michigan's Upper Peninsula in August this year.

I'd love to hear other travel weather tips and stories you have. Hit me up on one of my social channels linked below.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter), Threads and Facebook.