Following Hurricane Melissa’s Catastrophic Landfall

Hurricane Melissa roared ashore in Jamaica Tuesday as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, unleashing 185 mph winds, blinding rain and torrents of floodwater that rushed through cities and neighborhoods. Trees were torn from the ground and roofs peeled away as the storm — one of the most powerful in history — unleashed devastating force.

Late in the day, Melissa weakened slightly to a still-dangerous Category 4 as it moved off Jamaica’s northern coast and headed toward Cuba . Life-threatening flooding and the potential for deadly landslides were expected to continue across Jamaica in the storm’s wake.

Check here for Melissa’s full forecast, and here for the path of the storm as we track it.

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Read on for are our updates as they happened throughout the day Tuesday:

(05:41 p.m. EDT) Forecast For Tonight From Melissa

From digital meteorologist Rob Shackelford

Hurricane Melissa has moved back into the Caribbean, but the impacts for Jamaica are ongoing. Heavy rain, gusty winds and powerful storm surge will continue, but will fortunately begin to lessen through the overnight hours as Melissa moves to the northeast towards Cuba.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading across eastern Cuba, with hurricane-force winds expected to begin late tonight and early Wednesday. Landfall is expected across eastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, but devastating flooding, powerful wind gusts and life-threatening storm surge is expected through the day on Wednesday.

The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos will see their impacts worsen Wednesday, and Bermuda could see impacts Thursday.

(05:15 p.m. EDT) The Latest From The NHC

The National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. advisory reports that Melissa’s center has moved off Jamaica’s northern coast near Montego Bay, though flash flooding and damaging winds continue across the island.

A hurricane watch has now been issued for Bermuda as the storm tracks northeast through the Atlantic.

(05:03 p.m. EDT) Floodwaters Rage Across Jamaica

Video seen on social media shows just how bad flooding has gotten on parts of the island.

Flooding is likely to be among the longest lasting impacts from this storm. Some areas expected storm surge of up to 13 feet, leading to disastrous flooding and landslides that, according to Yale Climate Connections, “will spare no part of the island.”

(04:44 p.m. EDT) Does Melissa Have Any Peers?

We got this question from viewer Hannah L.:

“How does Melissa compare to other historic hurricanes? Is it similar to any? What are the differences?”

From senior meteorologist Jonathan Belles:

Many names have been floating in my head in recent days when thinking about what Melissa could bring. Melissa's slow turn and 185 mph winds over the Caribbean reminded of Hurricane Dorian in 2019. The extreme island damage that we expect could be similar to that of Hurricane Maria's strike in Puerto Rico in 2017.

The very heavy rainfall in Jamaica and Haiti could bring flooding of a similar magnitude to Hurricane Harvey in Texas, although rainfall amounts could still be several feet short of that storm. The added terrain in these islands could produce mudslides and more moving water, which wasn't seen as much in Texas.

(04:25 p.m. EDT) Wind Howls As Melissa Crosses Jamaica

In footage posted to social media, you can hear the high-pitched screaming of the storm’s winds.

At landfall, Melissa had a maximum sustained wind speed of 185 mph (though a peak gust was recorded at 252 mph).

The storm’s sustained winds are now topping out at 150 mph.

(04:03 p.m. EDT) Melissa Downgraded To Category 4

Hurricane Melissa has weakened slightly to Category 4 strength as it makes its way across the island of Jamaica, but remains extremely dangerous and life-threatening.

The latest National Hurricane Center bulletin urges residents to stay inside their shelters and avoid leaving until the storm has completely passed.

(03:56 p.m. EDT) Melissa Is Breaking Records

We got this question from viewer Taryn V.:

“Is this hurricane breaking any records?”

The answer is yes, several, actually.

Records And Titles Hurricane Melissa Has Broken Or Tied:

• Strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in Jamaica (Category 5)
• Most powerful hurricane to form in the year 2025, based on maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure
• Tied for the strongest landfall in Atlantic Basin history based on pressure and wind speed
• Tied for third strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by pressure, behind only Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 and Hurricane Wilma in 2005
• Tied for second strongest Atlantic hurricane by wind speed, joining a small group of storms with 180+ mph sustained winds

Click here to read more about Melissa’s history-making landfall.

(03:30 p.m. EDT) Melissa’s Mind-Blowing Rainfall Threat

From meteorologist Jennifer Gray:

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting as much as 40 inches of rain for parts of Jamaica when all is said and done. This is partly because of the slow-moving nature of Melissa, and also because of the mountainous terrain of the island. Mountains are able to squeeze out additional moisture and rain from a system. All of this rain will be racing down the hillsides, resulting in the potential for catastrophic landslides and mudslides.

Eastern Cuba is forecast to receive up to 25 inches of rain.

(03:08 p.m. EDT) Impacts Felt On Jamaica’s Southern Shore

Harrowing video from the ground shows Hurricane Melissa’s catastrophic impact on southern Jamaica, as raging floodwaters rush through streets and wind tears across neighborhoods.

Additional footage shows a building with its roof destroyed.

(02:49 p.m. EDT) Will Landfall Impact Melissa’s Strength?

We got this question from viewer Lauren P.:

“Is there a chance once Melissa hits land that she could lose strength and hopefully not cause as much damage?”

From senior meteorologists Jonathan Erdman and Jonathan Belles:

The eye is about half way across Jamaica now and collapsing quickly due to mountainous terrain. But given it's one of the most intense hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Basin, it won't make much difference for what are expected to be catastrophic impacts from flooding and extreme winds.

If you have questions about Hurricane Melissa, text them to (404) 793-7182 and we may answer them in future Live Updates.

(02:31 p.m. EDT) Destruction At Hospital Near Landfall

Video posted to social media shows damage and strong winds at the Black River hospital in St. Elizabeth, Jamaica, less than an hour from where Melissa roared ashore.

(02:06 p.m. EDT) Update From Tourist In Lockdown

Toby Smith, a guest at the Riu Ocho Rios resort on Jamaica’s northern shore, says he and his family remain in lockdown as Hurricane Melissa batters Jamaica. “Lots of surface water in the gardens and splashing in the common areas,” he said, adding that conditions appear “much worse west of us in Montego Bay and on the south coast.

Smith briefly stepped into the hallway outside of his room to check on the situation, nothing towels and sandbags lining the corridors to hold back incoming water.

“We’re expecting crazy winds for the next few hours,” he said.

(01:43 p.m. EDT) Melissa’s Unusual Eyewall Activity

We got this question from viewer Linda M.:

“Is it possible for the hurricane to hit even though it didn’t go through eye wall replacement?”

From senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:

Not only is it possible, it appears to be the case with Melissa. Most intense hurricanes undergo an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) at least once, but usually multiple times if they're not crashing into land. No doubt Melissa's internal structure and dynamics will be subject for future studies by scientists.

If you have questions about Hurricane Melissa, text them to (404) 793-7182 and we may answer them in future Live Updates.

(01:21 p.m. EDT) Where Storm Surge May Be Worst

From senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:

As the eye of Melissa moves ashore in western Jamaica, one area of the coast is of particular concern for storm surge.

According to a combination of the SLOSH model and another wind wave model from NOAA, a rather expansive area near Black River, Jamaica, in Saint Elizabeth Parish may be inundated with 6 feet or more of water from the sea above normally dry ground.

You can see that in the social post embedded below. Again, this is a model run based on Melissa’s Cat. 5 intensity, angle of approach and forward speed, not necessarily what is or will occur on the ground.

(01:01 p.m. EDT) Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall In Jamaica

By digital meteorologist Rob Shackelford:

Hurricane Melissa has made landfall near New Hope, Jamaica with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph, per a special update from the National Hurricane Center.

This means Melissa ties Hurricane Dorian in 2019 and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the strongest landfall in terms of winds in the Atlantic Basin.

With a pressure of 892 mb, it also ties the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935’s all-time low pressure at landfall.

(12:57 p.m. EDT) Melissa's Landfall Wobbles

We got this question from viewer Patrina L.:

“Based on current assessments, how likely will the landfall shift directly (wagon tail) NW towards Hanover, specifically Lucea and Negril area?”

From senior meteorologist Jonathan Belles:

There's not a ton of time left for significant shifts, but we have noted a modest northward wobble. In past hurricanes, we have seen hurricanes jog near landfall as they approach landmasses with significant terrain like Jamaica's, and this may be the reason for this temporary jog. Landfall is expected soon just west of Black River, Jamaica, while the eyewall is hammering Negril and Montego Bay.

If you have questions about Hurricane Melissa, text them to (404) 793-7182 and we may answer them in future Live Updates.

(12:43 p.m. EDT) Deafening Wind, Blinding Rain

From writer Renee Straker:

A storm chaser captured the absolute violence of the storm as it started moving ashore. Listen to the roaring, deafening sounds of the winds and blinding rain tearing through a neighborhood believed to be near Treasure Beach, Jamaica.

(12:14 p.m. EDT) How Does The National Hurricane Center Determine Landfall?

From digital meteorologist Caitlin Kaiser:

As Melissa’s eyewall crosses the coastline, it brings up the question of how we know when the storm has officially made landfall.

According to the National Hurricane Center, landfall is the intersection of the surface center of the tropical cyclone with the coastline.

We are watching Melissa’s location closely as landfall is imminent on the southern coast of Jamaica.

(11:56 a.m. EDT) Incredible Satellite Images As Melissa Nears Jamaica

From senior writer Chris DeWeese:

As Melissa lumbers ever closer to Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane, here’s a look at what it looks like from space. If you look closely, you can see the mesovortices in its eye.

(11:39 a.m. EDT) Hurricane Hunters Forced To Turn Back Due To Turbulence

From meteorologist intern Hayden Marshall:

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron crew, more often known as the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, is now returning to its forward operating location in Curaçao following extreme turbulence in Hurricane Melissa’s eyewall.

This comes after the aircraft experienced unusual force, even for the eyewall of a major hurricane.

Safety procedures require that the aircraft undergo an inspection before returning to normal operations.

The extreme, unusually strong turbulence speaks to the historical nature of Hurricane Melissa, with even hurricane hunters finding the strength of the storm unusual.

(11:24 a.m. EDT) Melissa Has A Dry Eye

We got this question from viewer Matt H.:

"How does the dry eye of the hurricane make it different than others? Does it make the hurricane stronger?"

From senior meteorologist Jonathan Belles:

One of the more in-the-weeds records that Melissa has likely set is for the dryness and warmth of its eye. The eye is created by substantial sinking in the center of a hurricane. This subsidence compresses and warms the air as it approaches the surface from the tens of thousands of feet at the top of a hurricane. The drier and warmer the air in the eye, the stronger a hurricane is.

The fact that temperatures at the top of the eye are approaching freezing signifies that Melissa is an extremely powerful hurricane. At the surface of the eye, it could be a downright hot and muggy day that would rival an August day in Jamaica, although these conditions will not last very long between eyewalls.

If you have questions about Hurricane Melissa, text them to (404) 793-7182 and we may answer them in future Live Updates.

(11:14 a.m. EDT) One-Third Of Jamaica Already Without Power

In a social media post, the Jamaica Public Service Company announced that 35% of customers were in the dark, with most of those outages being on the western side of the island, where Melissa is about to come ashore.

"Our teams are RESPONDING to these outages right now, wherever it is safe," said the post. "At this time, we have NO plans to shut down the system."

(11:00 a.m. EDT) Resetting The Scene At 11 AM EDT

From meteorologist Jennifer Gray:

The 11 a.m. update from the National Weather Service shows Major Hurricane Melissa remains a Category 5 hurricane with maximum winds of 185 mph. Pressure remains at 892 mb.

The storm’s eye is approaching Jamaica’s coast, and therefore, landfall will occur very soon.

Catastrophic winds, rain and storm surge are happening on the island right now, and will continue for hours to come.

Some of the most intense conditions right now are impacting Saint Elizabeth and Westmoreland parishes on the southwestern coast of Jamaica.

(10:49 a.m. EDT) This Is What A Cat 5 Nearing Landfall Is Like

Hurricane chaser Josh Morgerman says he's near the expected landfall point of Hurricane Melissa along Jamaica's southwestern coast, and a post to X shows what it's like to be in the middle of a historic storm:

(10:41 a.m. EDT) Extreme Gusts Recorded By Hurricane Hunters

From senior meteorologist Jonathan Belles:

Hurricane Hunters from NOAA and the Air Force are lining up to gather the last information on Melissa before its historic landfall in Jamaica. The strengthening storm continues to provide meteorological superlatives, and the NOAA Hurricane Hunters just found wind gusts approaching 250 mph at roughly 1,500 feet. They measured this using a dropsonde — a tube that drops from the plane to the ocean’s surface measuring temperature, winds, moisture and more. It is conceivable that wind gusts over 200 mph could be felt at some of the highest peaks in western Jamaica during the landfall process.

(10:34 a.m. EDT) A Truly Stunning Look Inside The Eye

Check out this view from inside the eye of Hurricane Melissa, as seen by the Hurricane Hunters:

To see one of their flights through the storm yesterday, watch this video.

(10:18 a.m. EDT) 'LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE'

The National Hurricane Center is issuing final pleas to Jamaican residents and visitors, with Melissa’s landfall likely just a few hours away:

"CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN JAMAICA … LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE"

"Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, and loss of life. Residents in Jamaica that experience the eye should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the eyewall of Melissa.

To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection."

(10:00 a.m. EDT) Melissa Now Stronger Than Milton (2024)

At 10 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Melissa has gotten even stronger. The National Hurricane Center says the minimum central pressure is 892 mb, and maximum sustained winds are 185 mph. It’s just 45 miles south-southeast of Negril now.

This ties Melissa with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane for the third-most-intense Atlantic Basin hurricane on record. Only Wilma (882 mb) and Gilbert (888 mb) were stronger.

Both Hurricane Dorian (2019) and the Labor Day 1935 hurricane made their landfall with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph, so this storm could tie or top the strongest Atlantic Basin landfall in terms of winds.

All of our updated rankings can be found here.

(09:50 a.m. EDT) Information Blackout Likely Nearest To Landfall

Having covered a few of these catastrophic hurricane landfalls, here's what's about to happen. In the hours — and possibly days — after landfall, we are very unlikely to get detailed information or visuals out of southwestern Jamaica or in the mountains, which are expected to get the worst of Melissa. This is directly due to the widespread, massive damage that will be left behind, and the need to respond to humans in dire need first and foremost.

We will obviously provide any information we receive in the aftermath of what we now know will be a horrific landfall that will forever alter this beautiful island nation.

(09:36 a.m. EDT) 'This Is Not A Joke'

From writer Renee Straker:

Even hurricane-tested Jamaicans have taken the threat of Melissa seriously. Heeding stern warnings, this video shows you how many people prepared for what’s expected to be a devastating landfall.

However, government officials were worried late Monday. They said not enough people had evacuated low-lying coastal areas. Desmond McKenzie, Jamaica’s minister for local government, said 133 of the island’s 880 shelters were being used.

(09:00 a.m. EDT) Melissa Now 6th-Strongest Atlantic Hurricane On Record

From meteorologist Tiffany Savona:

Hurricane Hunters find that Hurricane Melissa continues to strengthen. The pressure has fallen to 896 mb and the maximum sustained winds have increased to 180 mph. NHC says the northern eyewall is approaching the southern coast of Jamaica; we'll likely see a landfall in a few hours.

(08:57 a.m. EDT) Jamaican Official: 1,000 People In Shelters As Melissa Approaches

From senior writer Chris DeWeese:

As Renee mentioned, government officials in Jamaica have been expressing concern about the number of people who have decided to make use of the shelters that have been opened across the island. A key Jamaican government official told the BBC that around 1,000 people are in shelters in Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa approaches the island.

Abka Fitz-Henley, State Minister in the Office of the Prime Minister, also told BBC Newsday that the government expects "significant infrastructure damage" from this storm.

(08:35 a.m. EDT) NHC Uses Sobering Language To Describe Melissa's Dire Threat

From meteorologist Jennifer Gray:

The NHC warned this morning:

"Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flooding, landslides, and destructive winds will continue through today, causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Total structure failure is possible near the path of Melissa’s center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of life.”

(08:08 a.m. EDT) The Eyewall Is Closing In

From senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:

With hurricane-force winds extending up to 30 miles from the center, that means its eyewall with the most intense winds is quickly closing in on western Jamaica.

If this were a U.S. hurricane, the National Weather Service would issue an "extreme wind warning" for western Jamaica.

The NWS issues these "extreme wind warnings" in the U.S. for the arrival of a Category 3-plus eyewall (115-plus-mph winds) within one hour. It was last issued in the U.S. for Hurricane Milton's landfall in central Florida last October.

(08:00 a.m. EDT) The 8 AM EDT Advisory Is In ...

And there's been no change. 175 mph maximum sustained winds, minimum central pressure of 901 mb. If it makes landfall at that pressure, it would be the fourth-most-intense landfall on record for the Atlantic Basin, ranking only behind Camille (1969, Mississippi), Gilbert (1988, Mexico) and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane (Florida Keys).

Melissa is now just 55 miles south-southeast of Negril. It's safe to say landfall is imminent.

(07:40 a.m. EDT) A Historic First For Jamaica

From senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Melissa to make landfall in Jamaica at Category 5 intensity. That would be a historical first for Jamaica, according to NOAA’s database.

Only two other Cat 5 hurricanes have passed within 70 miles of Jamaica, and neither made landfall.

Ivan in 2004 claimed 17 lives, left 18,000 left homeless and triggered mudslides/flooding on the island. Allen in 1980 slammed northern Jamaica, with eight killed, and 4,000 to 5,000 were left homeless.

(07:18 a.m. EDT) Winds Could Be 30% Stronger In Higher Elevations

From meteorologist Jennifer Gray:

Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in Jamaica, and catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected to begin this morning, lasting for much of the day, because of Melissa’s slow crawl over the island.

The National Hurricane Center warns, "Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger."

(06:58 a.m. EDT) A 'Frightening Situation' For Jamaica

From senior writer Chris DeWeese:

"This is a frightening situation for Jamaica," Matthew Samuda, the country’s Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change, said during an interview with the BBC World Service’s Newsday program. According to Samuda, 70% of Jamaica’s population lives within 3.1 miles of the sea.

"We hope we have done enough in terms of preparation," he added, saying that officials have spent the past week telling residents about shelters around the island. However, amid preparation for the hurricane, Samuda also mentioned that officials have had a hard time convincing residents to go to the shelters, as they seem to feel, in his words, that they must "protect their property as opposed to preserving their lives first."

(06:31 a.m. EDT) How Rare Are Category 5 Landfalls?

From senior meteorologist Jonathan Erdman:

Category 5 landfalls in the Atlantic Basin are rare (thankfully), but perhaps not as rare as you might think.

Seventeen different hurricanes over the last 101 years have made at least one Cat 5 landfall. 2017’s Hurricane Irma made four separate Cat 5 landfalls from Barbuda to far northern Cuba.

The last time this happened was just over six years ago, when Hurricane Dorian crawled through the northwest Bahamas.

The most intense Atlantic Basin Cat 5 landfalls:

• By lowest pressure: the Labor Day 1935 Florida Keys hurricane (892 millibars)
• By max sustained winds: Dorian 2019 and the Labor Day 1935 hurricane (185 mph)

(06:08 a.m. EDT) Jamaica Will Be Forever Changed

From meteorologist Tiffany Savona:

Extremely strong wording from The Weather Channel storm tracker Jim Cantore:

"What matters is Jamaica and the nearly 3 million people on this island. Black River, Parottee, Great Bay, Montego Bay and Trelawny are just a few places that will be forever changed in the next 18 hours."

(05:45 a.m. EDT) Melissa's Death Toll Is Already 7

From writer Renee Straker:

As Melissa’s outer bands impacted Jamaica, three people died there, adding to the four deaths blamed on the storm in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Another person remains missing in the Dominican Republic.

With Melissa’s life-threatening storm surge and winds, Jamaican government officials were concerned that only about 1,000 people were in shelters open across the island on Monday.

(05:24 a.m. EDT) Unprecedented In 174 Years

According to the Associated Press, hurricane records go back 174 years in Jamaica, and Melissa is on track to be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the island nation in nearly two centuries. All possible preparations have been completed, and now, the nation hunkers down for what could be one of its longest days ever.

"There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5," Prime Minister Andrew Holness told the media. "The question now is the speed of recovery. That’s the challenge."

(05:00 a.m. EDT) Stronger Than Katrina

As of the 5 a.m. EDT update, Hurricane Melissa has a minimum central pressure of 901 mb. That's stronger than Katrina at its most intense, which bottomed out at 902 mb in 2005. Wilma holds the Atlantic record for lowest minimum central pressure at 882 mb; we don't expect Melissa to threaten that record.

Melissa's now just 115 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and has maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. It's expected to remain a Category 5 hurricane at landfall later today.