Tropical Storm Isaias will be the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026.

Hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued along the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Isaias continues to strengthen.

Isaias could rapidly intensify during the next few days, becoming a significant hurricane before making landfall along the northern Gulf Coast.

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Where is Tropical Storm Isaias now?

The tropical storm is located in the southwestern Gulf off the eastern coast of Mexico.

Isaias has winds of 45 mph and it is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday, then rapidly strengthen to at least a Category 2 by Friday evening in the central Gulf.

(MORE: Florida declares state of emergency for 25 counties)

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Isaias is the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Isaias to determine its specific location, strength and organization.

(MORE: Tropical Storm Isaias maps tracker)

The latest watches

Here are the latest watches from the National Hurricane Center, visible on the graphic below:

Hurricane watch: Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida

Tropical storm watch: Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line south of New Orleans to west of Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, and east of Indian Pass to Aucilla River, Florida

(MORE: What all these tropical terms mean)

Storm surge watch: Mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown, Florida

The image below shows how high the storm surge is expected to be, above ground level. These numbers can change, so make sure to check back often.

Where Isaias could go and when

Isaias will move east to northeast through Thursday, before its northward pull toward the Gulf Coast.

You can see in the computer model forecast tracks below that Isaias could make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle by late Friday or early Saturday.

Beyond that, Isaias will get pushed far inland over the Southeast.

Much of the storm's impacts will likely be along and east of its path.

(MORE: What you need to know during hurricane season)

How strong Isaias could get

This storm is expected to benefit from water temperatures well into the 80s in the Gulf, plenty warm for intensification over the next few days.

But with the jet stream sagging far to the south, Isaias will have to battle wind shear.

That matters because wind shear is hostile for developing and active tropical systems, tilting them or sometimes even outright preventing them from developing.

The question is how much wind shear will affect it, and for how long.

• If wind shear is stronger, more persistent: Expect a weaker storm
• If it experiences less wind shear, at least for a time: Isaias could become stronger, at least temporarily.

You can see the wind shear forecast below; the colors in darker purple and white indicate strong wind shear.

Since the wind shear is expected to become stronger the farther north Isaias goes, it is likely to lose some wind intensity closer to landfall.

For now, the most likely intensity near landfall is a Category 2 hurricane.

The potential impacts

Where and how significant the impacts will be depends on the exact track, how fast it moves and how strong Isaias is.

But in general, the most significant impacts will be felt along and to the east of the storm's track and its inland remnant. That includes where storm surge flooding, strong winds and isolated tornadoes could be felt near the Gulf Coast before and some time after landfall.

Heavy rain from Isaias could arrive along the Gulf Coast as soon as Friday, then will push far inland through the rest of the weekend. As much as 10 inches could fall locally, with most receiving between 3 and 6 inches.

Locally flooding rainfall is possible as far inland as most of the Southeast, Appalachians, and possibly parts of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, this weekend.

What you should do

If you're near the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida, monitor the latest forecast for this system and have your hurricane plans ready to go. Be prepared for power outages that could last at least several hours, or possibly multiple days.

Even though this is one of the least active hurricane seasons in years, an impactful storm can still happen this late in the season.

And it doesn't take a hurricane to trigger major rainfall flooding, as we saw earlier this season with Tropical Storm Arthur's flooding in the South.

If you're in the Southeast, including the Appalachians, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, be on the lookout for flash flooding this weekend. Avoid flood-prone areas and never drive into flooded stretches of roads.

Impact risk
The map below shows the general risk from Isaias and its inland remnant, including from rainfall flooding, winds and storm surge near the coast. This map will update throughout the duration of the storm.
The impact levels on the map mean:

• "Aware" (yellow): Some significant impacts could occur. Check frequently for forecast updates ahead.
• "Prepare" (orange): More widespread, significant storm impacts are increasingly possible. Consider stocking up on supplies, plan for potential power outages and know your evacuation or escape routes if you live in an area prone to storm surge or rainfall flooding.
• "Alert" (red): Storm impacts will arrive soon or are already occurring. Put your preparedness plan into action. Heed any orders from local officials to evacuate and remain in safe shelter until the storm is over.

(MORE: Stay prepared this hurricane season)

How to pronounce Isaias

Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is one of the trickier names to pronounce on this year's list. To hear the correct pronunciation, listen here.

Isaias replaced "Ike" on the Atlantic list after that name was retired following the destructive, deadly 2008 hurricane.

It wasn't used during its first year of eligibility in 2014, since we only reached the 8th name, Hanna, that year.

However, the name was used in 2020 for a storm that eventually tracked up the East Coast with destructive winds.

Named storms of the Gulf so far

While El Niño continues to shred some systems before they form and weaken the ones that do, three storms have battled the conditions to actually get names and impact the Gulf Coast states. These storms may have not been hurricanes, but they did bring heavy rainfall to the region.

All systems like this one need is a window of opportunity with relatively less wind shear, even in El Niño-assisted conditions.

Tropical Storm Arthur was a brief June storm that quickly reached tropical storm strength right before a Texas landfall.

The low fell apart quickly after moving onshore, but its remnants brought torrential rainfall over the Gulf Coast. Arthur actually brought 37.53 inches to Alexandria, Louisiana, which was the wettest rainfall total caused by an Atlantic tropical cyclone.

(MORE: Arthur Recap)

In July, Tropical Storm Bertha formed in the northeast quadrant of the Gulf. It moved to the north before interestingly turning west and striking the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St. Bernard Parish Wednesday afternoon on July 22. Rainfall totals of 1 to 5 inches were widespread with isolated totals exceeding 5 inches.

(MORE: Bertha recap)

The next storm to impact the Gulf was Tropical Storm Edouard, which made landfall on Sept. 1, 2026. Winds were around 60 mph at the time of landfall and heavy rainfall was also reported.

Hurricanes can still form during strong El Niño years

Even though this hurricane season has proved to be one of the quietest on record, that doesn’t mean we can’t get an impactful tropical system or hurricane.

There have been seasons in the past that have managed to produce strong storms despite a strong El Niño.

The image below shows several hurricanes that have formed during super El Niño seasons from 1972 to 2015.