The current super El Niño is likely to become the strongest on record in over 75 years, with impacts on hurricane season, rainfall and temperatures as we move through fall and winter, according to the latest update from NOAA. 

What’s new in NOAA's El Niño prediction?

• El Niño continues to intensify, with water temperatures now 2.3 degrees Celsius above average in the equatorial eastern Pacific over the last week. Pockets of surface water are as warm as 4 degrees Celsius warmer than average.
• Based on daily data using an old "oceanic Niño index" (ONI), this would be a new all-time record.
• However, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center officially uses data averaged over three-month periods and a new index that filters out the surrounding warming ocean from climate change called the "relative oceanic Niño index" (RONI).
• These values are also rising, but are still not at record levels through August, according to NOAA.
• Regardless, the Prediction Center says chances "remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950," with an 83% chance for October-December.
• El Niño will have big impacts this winter, bringing wet and stormy conditions to much of the South.

(MORE: Our complete coverage of El Niño)

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator that typically happens every three to four years. It can affect global weather patterns for months, from temperatures to precipitation to the hurricane season.

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(El NIÑO WINTER IMPACTS: Will your area be warmer, drier or wetter?)

This year’s El Niño is already very strong and expected to continue to strengthen through the fall and winter. It has not only a high chance of being very strong, but there is also a high chance of it becoming a historic El Niño, exceeding the strength of previous recorded El Niño events.

NOAA uses longer-term data to filter out short-term changes in the weather and ocean from the El Niño signal, according to James Belanger, The Weather Company vice president of meteorology.

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Why does El Niño matter?

So what does warm ocean water near the equator have to do with your weather?

While El Niño is only one influence on global weather, its heat transferred to the atmosphere can have a significant impact on weather patterns around the world from summer through fall, winter and spring.

And the stronger the El Niño, the more likely you'll see its typical weather impacts, such as a wet southern U.S. in winter or drought in Australia and Indonesia.

"Daily and weekly changes in sea-surface temperature are not tied to El Niño impacts over the United States," said Erica Grow Cei, NOAA public affairs meteorologist in an email to weather.com.

El Niño already impacting hurricane season

A stronger El Niño tends to have a significant impact on hurricane seasons, both in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and we are seeing those impacts already this season.

In the Atlantic, a strong El Niño often produces more sinking air and stronger wind shear in parts of the Atlantic Basin, both hostile to hurricanes. So, in general, most stronger El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons are quieter than average.

This season, the Atlantic has seen nine named storms, but only one has become a hurricane. Isaias didn't reach hurricane strength until late on Oct. 7, the latest first hurricane in the satellite era (1966 to present).

(MORE: Isaias was first hurricane of 2026, nearly a month later than record)

In past super El Niño seasons, only one hurricane across four seasons combined formed after Oct. 7, so this year could end with just one hurricane, a modern-era record low.

Meanwhile, eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons are typically more active during strong El Niños. Tropical activity in both the eastern and central Pacific basins has been near or above average, with a total of 16 storms, four of which have been major hurricanes.

One way you can see this is in the graph below. The ACE index not only counts the number of storms, but also takes into account how strong and long-lasting they are. The higher the index, the more active the season.

El Niño impacts to this winter

Impacts from El Niño generally become more widespread over the U.S. from December through March, NOAA's Erica Grow Cei told weather.com.

In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.

NOAA's updated winter outlook released October 15 shows a much wetter pattern across the Southern Tier, thanks to a strong El Niño. That means a wetter winter is expected from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough.

 “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter,” said Ken Graham, Director of NOAA's National Weather Service.  

Hawaii can also suffer from rainier winters before drying out significantly in the year after El Niño.

Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. is expected to stay mild and drier this winter because of the stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest. That means that your heating bill won't be as steep this year, but it also means less snow potentially.